Packers mailbag: The threshold for how good Green Bay's defense must be in 2024
Training camp is a month away, and now it's time to evaluate where the Green Bay Packers' roster is and take some time off to have a big-picture perception of their offseason moves. It's Friday, so let's do our weekly mailbag. To me, the best collective stat to understand how good a unit is is […]
Training camp is a month away, and now it's time to evaluate where the Green Bay Packers' roster is and take some time off to have a big-picture perception of their offseason moves. It's Friday, so let's do our weekly mailbag.
To me, the best collective stat to understand how good a unit is is DVOA. It encapsulates performance in several different ways, taking the opposition into consideration to avoid rewarding units that were only good because they faced bad teams.
Evaluating how former defensive coordinator Joe Barry went, it gives us a clear representation of what happened. The defense was 22n in 2021, 20th in 2022, and 27th in 2023. A bad performance early on masked because the offense was good, a slight improvement in year 2 to save his job, and a complete downfall in year 3, when the unit was supposed to make a leap.
I won't believe the Packers' defense will jump from 27th to the top 10 until I see it, but being in the top half of the league should be the acceptable benchmark considering the investment Brian Gutekunst has made in that side of the ball.
Brian Gutekunst has been willing to sit and wait after the draft. In 2021, De'Vondre Campbell was signed in July, but for the most part the Packers have allowed young players to get training camp reps and show what they can do.
That being said, I would understand a move to add pieces to the defensive backfield in case the young players don't show they can impact the team right away. We've made a piece about ESPN's suggesting veteran cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who's by fair the best option at his position.
The Packers drafted three safeties, so I wouldn't expect a move there. But if Jeff Hafley wants to use Xavier McKinney as a strong safety and none of the rookies is ready to play deep, the market has interesting options, like Justin Simmons and Quandre Diggs.
Going back to the previous answer, how the secondary lineup will shake out is a sequence of big question marks. During the offseason program, the most frequent formation had McKinney in the box and Anthony Johnson Jr. deep.
But if Hafley is comfortable playing Hafley deep, it opens the door for the Packers to play more of their rookies — Evan Williams and Kitan Oladapo in particular. Javon Bullard might be an option everywhere, but the most likely spot for him right away would be the slot, fighting for the starting job with Keisean Nixon.
There are so many options, and Jeff Hafley is a former defensive backs coach. With that in mind, his schematic approach is heavily connected with what he will do in the backend. The answers there will give us a better understanding of how the entire unit will operate.
Thanks for your question, Ed. In fact, this season will be different for me, as I will be exclusively covering the NFL on a full-time basis for the first time in my journalistic career. While it doesn't start, there is still a lot of content to create, but I'll also make a family trip to a beautiful Brazilian city called Gramado. But don't worry, the quick break won't change our rhythm of Packers stuff here.
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