Biggest disappointment at mid-season: Packers need more out of Matt LaFleur
The talk the entire offseason was how we were finally going to see the true version of the Matt LaFleur offense. Without Aaron Rodgers, who disliked motions and pre-snap movement, the Green Bay Packers head coach and offensive playcaller would finally have the freedom to call whatever he wants. Well, things haven't gone as smoothly. […]
The talk the entire offseason was how we were finally going to see the true version of the Matt LaFleur offense. Without Aaron Rodgers, who disliked motions and pre-snap movement, the Green Bay Packers head coach and offensive playcaller would finally have the freedom to call whatever he wants. Well, things haven't gone as smoothly.
The Packers slightly elevated their motion rate, but it hasn't even kept up with the increase across the league. They are in the top 10 in snap motion percentage, but well behind teams from the same offensive tree — the Miami Dolphins are an absurd outlier, over 60% when nobody else is above 41%, but the Los Angeles Rams, with Sean McVay, and the San Francisco 49ers, with Kyle Shanahan, are motioning with much more frequency — both before the snap and at the moment of the snap.
In general, the Packers look scared. They are with a negative pass rate over expected through the season, and with an especially alarming negative rate since week 5. That means the offense has run the ball even in situations where the pass is more likely.
It's understandable that LaFleur would want a run-heavy offense considering how young the passing weapons are, and that this is Jordan Love's first year as a full-time starting quarterback. But when the run game isn't working whatsoever, the playcaller has to adapt.
Through nine weeks, the Packers are 14th in dropback EPA and 19th in rush EPA. It’s clear that 1) they are better at passing than they are at running; and 2) most of the passing struggles are caused by unfavorable situations after unsuccessful runs. The sequence of run, run, then pass on third and long has been annoyingly frequent for the Packers.
Matt LaFleur has been the 19th best offensive playcaller in football this season, according to analytics guru Steven Patton. He's behind playcallers like Mike McCarthy, Tim Kelly, and Pete Carmichael.
Coaching staff issues
And it's not just the offensive playcalling that is under scrutiny. The way LaFleur built his coaching staff has been deservedly questioned.
The major cloud is over his decision to keep defensive coordinator Joe Barry. LaFleur is the first head coach to give Barry a third season as DC, as he had been fired after two years both by the Detroit Lions and Washington.
But there are other question marks as well and as I mentioned after the loss to the Minnesota Vikings, there’s some kind of Peter Principle around the offensive coaching staff since Nathaniel Hackett left to be the Denver Broncos head coach and Luke Getsy left to be the Chicago Bears OC. Adam Stenavich, Jason Vrable, and Luke Butkus were all promoted, and none of them has been as good as they’d been in their previous positions.
Matt LaFleur has had a successful tenure as the Packers head coach, but his grace period is coming close to an end — hopefully for him, the solid win over the Los Angeles Rams gives the team a new perspective.
Mid-season bold prediction: Joe Barry keeps his job as the Packers DC
Barry has been with Green Bay since 2021
