Packers face their biggest offensive challenge in Pittsburgh

After a solid yet non-explosive performance versus the Los Angeles Rams, the Green Bay Packers are set to face their biggest challenge so far this season. Even though the Pittsburgh Steelers have had offensive struggles, the defense is a top unit with several high-level players. The Steelers are 7th in defensive DVOA, which is better […]

Wendell Ferreira NFL News Writer
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Jordan Love, Christian Watson, Aaron Jones
Mike De Sisti / The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK

After a solid yet non-explosive performance versus the Los Angeles Rams, the Green Bay Packers are set to face their biggest challenge so far this season. Even though the Pittsburgh Steelers have had offensive struggles, the defense is a top unit with several high-level players.

The Steelers are 7th in defensive DVOA, which is better than any defense the Packers have faced this season — the best so far has been the Detroit Lions, 8th, and the only defense Green Bay will still face is the Chiefs, at 5th. It's a big test for the Packers, who are 21st in offensive DVOA.

"They wear people out for sure," Packers center Josh Myers said. "I think our whole O-line knows we're in for a four-quarter battle, and it's going to be a rough one all the way to the end."

The Steelers have edge rushers T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, for example. This is particularly problematic for an offense that struggled to limit edge players like Aidan Hutchinson and Maxx Crosby. The team also has star defenders like defensive tackle Cam Heyward and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Avoiding mistakes is a key

Packers quarterback Jordan Love hasn't been consistent at avoiding mistakes so far this season. He's had eight turnover-worthy plays, a 2.5% rate, which is not bad. The problem is that Love had at least one turnover-worthy play in six of his eight games this season — he was mistake-free only twice, against the Detroit Lions and the Los Angeles Rams. He also had two turnover-worthy plays against the New Orleans Saints and Las Vegas Raiders.

And the Steelers defense has been extremely successful generating takeaways. They are 9th in EPA/play this season, and excluding offensive turnovers, they fall to 18th. Pittsburgh is tied for 8th with eight interceptions and tied for second with eight fumble recoveries. They also returned two of their 16 takeaways — an interception and a fumble — for touchdowns.

According to analytics expert Steven Patton, Steelers defensive coordinator Teryl Austin is fifth among defensive playcallers in the NFL. That's also has a lot to do with head coach's Mike Tomlin ability to gameplan and develop players.

The Packers have had problems against physical football teams — the San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions immediately come to mind. And that's exactly what the Steelers are.

"This is a very competitive football team," Packers head coach LaFleur said. "They pride themselves on physicality, and it shows up all over the tape."

Drive consistency

The good news for the Packers is that the Steelers are not as good stopping the run. While the team is 9th in dropback EPA allowed, it is 17th in rush EPA allowed. That's why the Steelers are the second defense with the least amount of three-and-outs this season, ahead only of the Denver Broncos.

It's a weakness-on-weakness type of matchup, because the Packers offense is 29th in three-and-out rate over the first nine weeks of the season — the Steelers are 32nd, but that's another story. With Aaron Jones fully healthy and AJ Dillon playing as well as he has over the last three weeks, the Packers have a better chance at sustaining drives and keeping their own defense off the field.

The Packers have to evaluate what Jordan Love and the young receivers can do against top defenses. But at the same time, winning is still important. Finding a balance is decisive, and the run game has to be a big factor against such an opportunistic defense.