Packers have new goals in mind as they gear up for a surprisingly monster showdown with the Bears
Green Bay is close to securing a playoff spot, but there’s much more in play over the final month of the regular season.
The Green Bay Packers have a 93 percent chance of making the playoffs after beating the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving, and how Week 13 unfolded. They are not there yet, but it’s fair to add some extra motivations and goals to the final stretch of the regular season.
On Sunday, they have a monster game against the Chicago Bears, who enter the month of December sitting in the NFC’s first seed. Nobody could have predicted that to this extent, but Packers-Bears is a monster game in the NFC playoff race.
In terms of just going to the playoffs, the Packers go to 97 percent with a win and 81 percent with a loss, so the postseason berth will be likely anyway. However, there is much more in play at Lambeau Field for both sides. All numbers come from The Athletic‘s playoff prognosticator.
Beyond the potential Matt LaFleur-Ben Johnson rivalry, the game has real implications for the NFC North championship and potential first-round bye in the playoffs.
NFC North playoff chances
- Green Bay Packers 93%
- Chicago Bears 72%
- Detroit Lions 30%
- Minnesota Vikings <1%
NFC North title chances
- Green Bay Packers 65%
- Chicago Bears 30%
- Detroit Lions 4%
- Minnesota Vikings <1%
NFC North battle
Right now, the Packers have the best chance of winning the NFC North for the first time since 2021, with 65 percent — that’s based on 100,000 simulations run by The Athletic’s tool. With a win over the Bears, that number jumps to 75 percent — a loss, though, drops that to 30 percent and puts Chicago as the favorite to win the division for the first time since 2018.
In regard to just making the playoffs, the Packers most likely need two wins over the final five games, and three wins basically clinch a spot. Green Bay plays the Bears twice, plus the Denver Broncos, Baltimore Ravens, and Minnesota Vikings.
First seed and playoff bye
With the Los Angeles Rams’ loss to the Carolina Panthers, the battle for the NFC’s first seed has intensified. At the moment, the Packers have a 13 percent chance of getting it.
A victory on Sunday elevates that to 16 percent. If the Packers win out, they would have a 73 percent chance of getting the first-round playoff bye, but a single loss would drop that significantly to below 20 percent, depending on which game the loss occurs.
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