Breaking down the Packers' playoff scenarios: Matchups, tiebreakers, and seeding explained

The Green Bay Packers have been the sixth seed in the NFC for quite some time. With games against the New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings, and Chicago Bears left, the sixth place is still the most likely scenario for the team. However, some things might still change, and there are reasons to fight for over […]

Wendell Ferreira — NFL News Writer
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Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) reacts after completing a pass against the Seattle Seahawks during the second quarter at Lumen Field.
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The Green Bay Packers have been the sixth seed in the NFC for quite some time. With games against the New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings, and Chicago Bears left, the sixth place is still the most likely scenario for the team.

However, some things might still change, and there are reasons to fight for over the final three weeks of the season.

NFC North title/1st seed

Theoretically, the Packers can still achieve the NFC North title, and even the NFC's first seed, but that would demand an absurd sequence of results, including a tie between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings in Week 18. The Packers would have to win out, the Lions and Vikings would have to lose the next two each, and then tie in their last game.

For the Packers to get the first seed, the Philadelphia Eagles would also have to lose out.

  • Lions schedule: @ Bears, @ 49ers, vs Vikings
  • Vikings schedule: @ Seahawks, vs Packers, @Lions
  • Eagles schedule: @ Commanders, vs Cowboys, vs Giants

5th seed

For the Packers to get a better seeding while still being a wild card team, they will have to surpass the Vikings or the Lions. To surpass Detroit, the Packers would have to win out and the Lions to lose out.

The competition with the Vikings is more nuanced. The Packers can finish off the season with the same record as the Vikings, as long as they win the head-to-head matchup in Week 17, and that the Vikings don't beat the Lions in Week 18, because that will determine the divisional record. If the Vikings lose both divisional games, they could even beat the Seattle Seahawks.

6th seed

This is by far the most likely scenario, and it's where the Packers are now. Most combinations end with Green Bay here, and the big question then would be who the team would face in the wild card round. Right now, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the most likely opponent. The NFC West champion (at this point, the Los Angeles Rams are ahead) is also a possibility.

7th seed

The fight for the 6th and 7th seed for the Packers is with the Washington Commanders. They are one game behind the Packers now, but they would have a tie-breaking advantage in the case both teams finish the season with the same record.

So to secure the sixth seed and avoid a game against the Eagles or Lions early in the playoffs, the Packers must have an equal or better record than the Commanders over the final three weeks.

  • Commanders schedule: vs Eagles, vs Falcons, @ Cowboys

Missing the playoffs

The Packers have a 99% chance of reaching the playoffs, but it's still not official yet. The scenario in which the Packers miss it includes losing out, the Commanders winning at least one game, and the Falcons winning out. The NFC West teams will inevitably beat themselves out of the wild card race, and only the division Champion will advance.

  • Falcons schedule: vs Giants, @ Commanders, vs Panthers

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