The Green Bay Packers suffered, but beat the Carolina Panthers on Sunday putting themselves back in position to fight for a playoff spot. Now, it's still a tough road, but they have a realistic shot at making it to the postseason.

Of the three NFC wild card spots, one is already taken — it goes to whoever loses the NFC East between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys. The other two spots are open, and two NFC West teams are the likeliest to qualify — the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams, both close to a 70% chance.

The Green Bay Packers have 28% chance at this point, right ahead of the Minnesota Vikings at 27%. They have a head-to-head matchup on Sunday Night Football, and the winner goes to week 18 with a good chance — the Packers scenario is slightly better because they face the Chicago Bears, who are virtually eliminated from contention.

NFC wild card race

Team	Record	Playoff chances
Dallas Cowboys	10-4	100%
Seattle Seahawks	8-7	69%
Los Angeles Rams	8-7	67%
Green Bay Packers	7-8	28%
Minnesota Vikings	7-8	27%
New Orleans Saints	7-8	12%
Atlanta Falcons	7-8	12%

If the Packers win out, they are still not guaranteed to make the playoffs — they would still need one loss from Seattle or Los Angeles. The Seahawks play against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Rams face the New York Giants and the San Francisco 49ers — that's why the 49ers loss to the Baltimore Ravens was important, to ensure that San Francisco will have a meaningful game in week 18.

According to the New York Times playoff simulator, the Packers have a 95% chance of making the playoffs if they win out. However, there's no margin for error left. If the Packers beat the Vikings and lose to the Bears, the chances go down to 17%. If they lose to the Vikings and beat the Bears, it's even worse, 2%. If the Packers lose out, they would be eliminated.

The Packers-Vikings game is almost a playoff game. Right now, the Packers have a 28% chance. If they win on Sunday, it goes to 60%.

According to the Playoff Predictors simulating machine, the Packers would

Tiebreakers

If there's a multiple-way tie with several teams at 9-8, the Packers will most likely go to the playoffs. What can't happen for the Packers, even if they win out, is for them to have a simple tie with the Atlanta Falcons, who play the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints over the final two weeks. So the Packers need the Seahawks or the Rams to lose a game, but if one of them win out and the other lose out, there's a scenario where only the Packers and Falcons finish it 9-8, and Atlanta would go to the playoffs because of the head-to-head advantage.

Basically any other tie-breaking scenario favors the Packers — be it against the Seahawks, Rams, or Saints.

It's a lot of potential scenarios, and the situation will be clearer next week. But the most important steps for the Packers are to win out, and the rest will take care of itself.

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