Win over Chargers gives boost to Packers playoff chances
An unlikely win is the best way to improve the team's playoff hopes. And this is what the Green Bay Packers pulled off on Sunday, beating the Los Angeles Chargers 23-20. They were underdogs even playing at Lambeau Field, and the win elevated their playoff chances from 9% to 24% — it's now bigger than […]
An unlikely win is the best way to improve the team's playoff hopes. And this is what the Green Bay Packers pulled off on Sunday, beating the Los Angeles Chargers 23-20. They were underdogs even playing at Lambeau Field, and the win elevated their playoff chances from 9% to 24% — it's now bigger than it was before the loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.
Week 11 was good because, not only the Packers won, but most of the teams in the NFC wild card race lost — the exception was the Dallas Cowboys, who are realistically out of the Packers reach anyway.
The Minnesota Vikings, and the Seattle Seahawks, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers all lost, while the Atlanta Falcons were in their bye week. The Los Angeles Rams won, but they beat the Seahawks, so it was not a bad result for Green Bay's plans.
NFC wild card race (teams with more than 1% chance):
| Team | Record | Playoff chances |
|---|---|---|
Dallas Cowboys | 7-3 | 98% |
Minnesota Vikings | 6-5 | 78% |
Seattle Seahawks | 6-4 | 53% |
Atlanta Falcons | 4-6 | 33% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4-6 | 30% |
Green Bay Packers | 4-6 | 24% |
Los Angeles Rams | 4-6 | 16% |
Two decisive weeks
The Thursday's game against the Detroit Lions is big for the Packers playoff hopes. If they win, their chances go to 43%. But if they lose, it falls down to 18% even before considering the rest of the games.
It's extremely hard for them to win their next two games, against the Lions and Kansas City Chiefs. But if they do, the Packers chances go to 60%.
And that happens because these next two are the most difficult games left on the Packers schedule. After the sequence, the team plays at New York Giants, vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at Carolina Panthers, at Minnesota Vikings, and vs Chicago Bears.
Right now, the Packers have less than 1% chance of winning the NFC North.
Parallels with last season
A curious aspect is that the Packers were also 4-6 after 10 games last season, after beating the Dallas Cowboys in overtime. Then, they lost two games in a row to the Tennessee Titans and Philadelphia Eagles, falling to 4-8 — which might very well happen again this year.
After that, they won four consecutive games — Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, and Minnesota Vikings. That sequence put them in position to reach the playoffs, but they were eliminated with a week 18 loss to the Lions, which ended up being the last Aaron Rodgers game with the Packers.
Ups and downs
This year, it's been hard to predict Green Bay games, which is natural for young teams. They lost games that they should have probably won, like against the Atlanta Falcons, Las Vegas Raiders, and Denver Broncos, but won unlikely games too, against the New Orleans Saints (after being 17-0 entering the fourth quarter) and the Chargers.
The Packers chances are based on the growth of their young players, and rookies have been particularly impactful as of late. Wide receivers Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks, tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, and defensive tackle Karl Brooks are examples of the in-season development the team needs.
Packers trusted Jordan Love with aggressive gameplan, and he delivered
Love had 322 yards and two touchdowns against the Chargers
