There's still a realistic path for the Packers to reach the playoffs
So you're telling me there's a chance? This is basically how Green Bay Packers fans are feeling after the team beat the Los Angeles Rams last Sunday and improved their record to 3-5. There is still, in fact, a realistic chance of getting into the playoffs — a 22% chance, according to the New York […]
So you're telling me there's a chance? This is basically how Green Bay Packers fans are feeling after the team beat the Los Angeles Rams last Sunday and improved their record to 3-5. There is still, in fact, a realistic chance of getting into the playoffs — a 22% chance, according to the New York Times projecting tool.
Right now, the Packers are three wins behind the NFC North leaders, the Detroit Lions. There's just a 1% chance of winning the division, so that's not where Green Bay should put its effort. But the wild card is more palpable. They are 1.5 games behind the Minnesota Vikings, who are the seventh seed and lost starting quarterback Kirk Cousins.
Currently, the teams in the wild card race are the Dallas Cowboys (5-3), Seattle Seahawks (5-3), and Minnesota Vikings (5-4). Right after, the teams are the Washington Commanders (4-5), Atlanta Falcons (4-5), Green Bay Packers (3-5), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5).
Now, every game is really important for the Packers. To have a good chance of qualification, the Packers should win at least ten total games, and that means winning seven out of nine remaining games this season. Maybe, if things go right, they can get in with six more wins.
If they beat the Pittsburgh Steelers next Sunday, their playoff chances improve to 31%. If they lose, though, they go down to 15%. It's a big game, especially for an interconference matchup.
According to The New York Times tool, the most important games in terms of weight to get into the playoffs are the divisional matchups, as you would expect, against the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings. The other big game is against the Kansas City Chiefs — because it's the least likely win, and if they pull it off, it's a good sign.
| Teams | Record | Playoff chances |
|---|---|---|
Dallas Cowboys | 5-3 | 95% |
Seattle Seahawks | 5-3 | 76% |
Minnesota Vikings | 5-4 | 63% |
Atlanta Falcons | 4-5 | 31% |
Green Bay Packers | 3-5 | 22% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-5 | 14% |
Washington Commanders | 4-5 | 12% |
Chances of teams in the wild card race (including chances of winning the division)
Last year, the Packers were also 3-5 after eight games. They still lost another one to fell to 3-6 and then to 4-8. However, they won a sequence of four games, going to 8-8, and went into the last game of the season needing a simple win over the Detroit Lions to reach the playoffs — but they lost.
The biggest problem for the Packers is that they are entering the hardest part of the schedule. The next games are against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit Lions, and Kansas City Chiefs. They would have to win at least one and ideally two of these games to keep their hopes alive — and then win out against the New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings, and Chicago Bears.
It's not an easy proposition by any means, and the Packers would need a sequence of wins similar to what they did last year — and this time, without Aaron Rodgers. It would certainly mean a big step forward from the young offensive pieces, which per se would be more important than a wild card spot for the future of the franchise.
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