AFC Playoff Picture: Can Houston win the AFC South?

The Houston Texans keep finding exciting ways to win and are currently the 7th seed in the AFC playoffs entering Week 11 thanks to the Denver Broncos win over the Buffalo Bills. The Texans are 5-4 on the season and have already surpassed their win total from each of the last three seasons. As a […]

Kole Noble Chicago Bears News Writer
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Nov 12, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Houston Texans place kicker Matt Ammendola (16) celebrates with teammates after the victory over the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium.
Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Texans keep finding exciting ways to win and are currently the 7th seed in the AFC playoffs entering Week 11 thanks to the Denver Broncos win over the Buffalo Bills.

The Texans are 5-4 on the season and have already surpassed their win total from each of the last three seasons. As a result, the young team is on the brink of their first postseason appearance since 2019.

However, if the Texans can keep up with their current level of play, there's a strong possibility they can even take the AFC South lead from the Jacksonville Jaguars over the final weeks of the season.

Playoff picture for the Texans if the season ended today:

#1 Seed: Kanas City Chiefs (7-2) – 1st in AFC West
#2 Seed: Baltimore Ravens (7-3) – 1st in AFC North
#3 Seed: Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3) – 1st in AFC South
#4 Seed: Miami Dolphins (6-3) – 1st in AFC East
#5 Seed: Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) – Wild Card
#6 Seed: Cleveland Browns (6-3) – Wild Card
#7 Seed: Houston Texans (5-4) – Wild Card

In the Hunt

Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)
Indianapolis Colts (5-5)
Buffalo Bills (5-5)
Las Vegas Raiders (5-5)

The AFC North is turning out to be a gauntlet of a division, with three teams currently occupying 3 of the 7 playoff spots and the fourth team being represented as the first one out of the picture. With the Bengals and Bills lurking outside the picture, it's not going to be an easy road for the Texans to lock in a wild card spot.

However, the road to the playoffs would be a lot easier if the Texans can overtake the Jaguars for the top spot in the AFC South over the next few weeks. And they'll have a strong opportunity to do so.

Can Houston win the AFC South?

The door is open for the red-hot Texans to jump the regressing Jaguars in the divisional standings. The Texans have a very favorable schedule to close out the season, with the Jaguars in Week 12 and the Browns in 16 being the only teams currently on their remaining schedule with a winning record.

The Texans already have a major advantage over the Jaguars after between their division rival in Jacksonville 37-17 back in Week 3. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are coming off a brutal loss and will have to play the Texans once again along with the Bengals, Browns, Ravens over the next few weeks.

If the Texans can continue to stack wins down the stretch and defeat the Jaguars once again, the AFC South throne will return to Houston. Surprisingly, winning the AFC South title is the Texans best shot of securing a playoff berth given the level of talent competing for the AFC Wild Card spots. Here's the official look at the Texans remaining schedule in 2023.

Texans remaining schedule:

Week 11 vs Cardinals
Week 12 vs Jaguars
Week 13 vs Broncos
Week 14 at Jets
Week 15 at Titans
Week 16 vs Browns
Week 17 vs Titans
Week 18 at Colts

As you can see, it's definitely possible for the Texans to come out of this stretch with a favorable outcome willing to push them over the Jaguars. It would be quite the achievement to see the Texans end up with a Top-4 seed in their first year under head coach DeMeco Ryans and with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud after all these years.