NFL salary cap expert declares Texans winners in Brandin Cooks trade

Losing a wide receiver of the caliber of Brandin Cooks will always seem like a significant loss, no matter what the context is. The Houston Texans dealt the talented receiver for a couple of Day 3 draft picks, one of which they'll be able to exploit until 2024. But does that mean they "lost" the […]

Mauricio Rodriguez Dallas Cowboys News Writer
Add as preferred source on Google
Houston Texans
Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports

Losing a wide receiver of the caliber of Brandin Cooks will always seem like a significant loss, no matter what the context is. The Houston Texans dealt the talented receiver for a couple of Day 3 draft picks, one of which they'll be able to exploit until 2024.

But does that mean they "lost" the trade with the Dallas Cowboys? 

One NFL salary cap expert argues the contrary. According to Jason Fitzgerald from Over the Cap, the Texans actually emerge as the winners of the trade by a thin margin. 

How is that even possible? Let's dive into his explanation.

It's worth noting that Fitzgerald calculates the value of the trade by "calculating the average return in salary that you can expect for each draft pick." The evaluation of the trade from Over the Cap is mostly financial.

Here's how Fitzgerald breaks down what the Texans gain in his recent article:

"What did the Texans gain? Most might say they just gained a 5th and 6th-round pick, but there is more. Cooks' salary was guaranteed for the year and while the Texans spent $6 million to move him they ultimately saved $12 million by getting Dallas to take on that part of the contract. That is $12 million that can be used to sign other players. In addition to losing Cooks, they do also have to account for the costs associated with the draft picks, which reduces the financial savings from Cooks."

In total, Fitzgerald estimates the Texans are gaining $22.8 million in cap room taking everything into account. Fitzgerald uses the four-year value of the draft picks to estimate the gains. 

Conversely, the Cowboys (who got rid of two draft picks) end up with a total gain of $20.5 million.

"Over a 4 year period the trade skews slightly in favor of the Texans by about $2.3 million, which is a pretty even trade considering that on a per year basis that would be the value of a player bouncing on and off the roster all season."

"Now the timing on the return is very different for both teams," details Fitzgerald in the article. "Realistically the savings on Cooks won't really factor in for the Texans until 2024 and their draft picks will contribute more in 2024 and 2025 than they will in the present. Dallas gets almost all their value from the trade in 2023 unless Cooks proves to be very productive."

At the end of the day, Cooks didn't want to stay in Houston. Given the circumstances, the Texans were likely looking at either cutting the wide receiver or agreeing to a trade with another NFL team. 

This way, they maximize their assets as they continue their rebuild heading into the 2023 season. 

It's certainly frustrating to lose somebody like Cooks. But the Texans' front office handled things the right way given the circumstances of the relationship.