Jaguars need to make one big change to become legit AFC contenders
The most outstanding thing out of an impressive 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars season had to be the sophomore leap made by quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Under the guidance of battle-tested head coach Doug Pederson, the former No. 1 overall pick took his game to the next level. After a disappointing rookie season, no one questioned that Lawrence […]
The most outstanding thing out of an impressive 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars season had to be the sophomore leap made by quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
Under the guidance of battle-tested head coach Doug Pederson, the former No. 1 overall pick took his game to the next level. After a disappointing rookie season, no one questioned that Lawrence arrived. Every Sunday, Jags fans got to see glimpses of why analysts and draft gurus compared the kid to the game's greatest players during the Draft process.
After what could be labeled a "breakout season," however, it's time for the Jaguars to make a change on how they use him if they want to become legit contenders in a quarterback-loaded AFC.
The biggest thing separating the Jags from the conference favorites like the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Cincinnati Bengals is overall talent and experience. Last year's playoff trip into the Divisional Round should help Jacksonville next winter but it's true the roster is not quite at the height of the top dogs in the conference.
However, in a passing league such as the NFL, an elite passing offense is what you need to bring down even the best of the best. The Jags have that, in a way. Last year, they finished sixth in the league in passing offense DVOA. Now, Calvin Ridley is being added to the receiving core.
In terms of talent, that's about it in terms of "upgrades" to the offense. Sure, the Jags are adding first-round rookie Anton Harrison to the offensive line, presumably at right tackle. But they are losing starting LT Cam Robinson for four games.
So how can the Jaguars level up to compete against the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen's squads?
Jaguars need to make it even more about Trevor Lawrence
The Jags' biggest chance of "leveling up" comes from play-calling. We all know Pederson is one of the best play callers out there and I'm in no way dismissing what he's done so far. But a quick glance at the numbers reveals one thing: The top AFC quarterbacks pass the ball… a lot.
Per RBSDM.com, the top four teams to throw the football the most in early downs during neutral situations were as follows: Bengals, Chiefs, Bills, and Chargers. All of them passed the ball over 60% of the time in first and second down in neutral situations.
The Jaguars ranked 13th in that category with a 52.7% pass rate.
But even though they passed the ball at a near-league-average rate, no one did it better than the Jags! Trevor Lawrence's offense ranked first in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play in first and second down.
Conversely, they ranked just 16th when running the football in such scenarios.
Data analytics has gone a long way in showing NFL teams that throwing the football in early downs is the most efficient way to keep the chains moving. Such a strategy allows for fewer third-and-long situations and friendlier situations for offenses. It will also prepare the Jags better for when they're trailing, an area in which they weren't as effective last year.
It's no coincidence that the best quarterbacks in the league do this so consistently. The Jaguars should know it's time for them to take a similar approach. If Lawrence and Co. are to fight mano a mano with Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, and more in the playoffs, it's time to turn up the heat.
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