One player is pushing Jaguars' 2023 draft class into Top 10 status
The 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars draft class is made up of 13 picks, 10 of which are Day 3 selections. The franchise hopes having had so many darts to throw at the board results in enough hits to truly make an impact on the team moving forward. Judging by Warren Sharp's "Most Valuable 2023 NFL Draft […]
The 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars draft class is made up of 13 picks, 10 of which are Day 3 selections. The franchise hopes having had so many darts to throw at the board results in enough hits to truly make an impact on the team moving forward.
Judging by Warren Sharp's "Most Valuable 2023 NFL Draft Classes" chart, the franchise should get its wish as it ranked as the 10th best class in value measured by comparing the capital used for each pick versus the expected draft capital for each player using data from thousands of mock drafts. The study uses data from Grinding the Mocks and Arif Hasan.
But there's one Jaguars' selection driving that value
A closer look at the Jaguars' draft class (which you can check out in detail here) from a data perspective reveals the fact that they had a few "reaches" here and there. In other words, some of the picks represented some of the worst values in the Draft.
Per the analysis, for instance, TE Brenton Strange was the second most overdrafted player of the second round as the Penn State product had an expected draft position of No. 137. The Jaguars picked him at No. 61.
In the fourth round, two Jaguars' picks were named in the Top 10 most overdrafted players of the round as well: LB Ventrell Miller (Florida) and DL Tyler Lacy (Oklahoma State).
So why does the Jaguars' draft class rank Top 10 in value with so many so-called reaches? Well, there are two driving factors there. First, 13 picks is a lot of picks for one year. So it's likely the three players mentioned above don't move the needle all that much when there are 10 others involved.
But also, the Jaguars had the best value for a single sixth-round pick in Antonio Johnson, the safety out of Texas A&M. With an expected draft position of No. 64, the Jags found him at No. 160. Almost 100 picks later than he was expected to be taken off the board.
Johnson was Dane Brugler's second-best safety in this year's class and had a second-round grade on him. Plus, PFF had him as the highest-graded slot defender since 2021.
In Texas A&M, Johnson split time between nickel and safety and provides a versatile defensive back for the Jags.
Don't be surprised if he ends up being a starter later this year even if he was drafted so late. After all, the team finished 30th in passing defense per DVOA and with the defensive backfield remaining a concern, Johnson should get his opportunity.
