Dolphins at Chiefs: Three Bold Predictions

There are a ton of great Week 9 matchups on deck, but none are as exciting as the day's inaugural matchup between the Miami Dolphins (6-2) and Kansas City Chiefs (6-2). This game will not only give the winning team a major claim as the AFC's best – it will also give it the No. […]

Evan Winter NFL Managing Editor
Add as preferred source on Google
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

There are a ton of great Week 9 matchups on deck, but none are as exciting as the day's inaugural matchup between the Miami Dolphins (6-2) and Kansas City Chiefs (6-2).

This game will not only give the winning team a major claim as the AFC's best – it will also give it the No. 1 playoff seed in the playoff picture.

So, without further ado, let's dive into three bold predictions for what should be a memorable matchup in Germany. 

Tyreek Hill will do what no receiver has done against the Chiefs in 2023

One of the obvious storylines is Hill's reunion with the Chiefs, albeit on opposite sidelines. 

Either way, Hill threw some trash talk the Chiefs' way earlier in the week. 

"It doesn't really matter where we play at," said Hill. "They gon' get this work wherever. Y'all rather get that bulletin board material."

Regardless of what Hill thinks, it won't be easy against the Chiefs. They've allowed just two 100-yard games to receivers all year long. The most recent came in Week 7 when Los Angeles Chargers WR Josh Palmer caught five balls for 133-yards. Jacksonville Jaguars WR Christian Kirk is the only other receiver to cross 100 receiving yards against the Chiefs and that was all the way back in Week 2. 

But, that's what defines this bold prediction. Hill will record at least 150 receiving yards and he'll also snag at least two receiving touchdowns in Frankfurt. Both marks will be season-firsts allowed by the Chiefs defense.

The Chiefs have an elite defense, but like every NFL defense, they will struggle with the combination of Hill and Jaylen Waddle, which will lead to a big game for Hill.

Both teams will combine for just 2.0 sacks or less

The Chiefs average 3.5 sacks per game, which is tied for third-most. The Dolphins average 3.4 sacks per game, which is fifth-most. The Chiefs are taking quarterbacks down an average of five times per game over their last three games, while the Dolphins are making it happen 3.3 times per game. 

However, both teams will combine for two QB takedowns or less on Sunday.

There are three factors that will contribute to this prediction: The return of Dolphins offensive linemen, Terron Armstead and Connor Williams, and Patrick Mahomes' ability to avoid sacks, in general.

Both Armstead' and Williams' are back after missing the last month, pretty much. Sure, it remains to be seen how much their absences affect the cohesiveness and chemistry up front, which isn't something you want to "find out" against the Chiefs' pass rush. But at the same time, both players are clear upgrades over what the Dolphins have recently had. 

Mahomes, as usual, is pure magic when it comes to avoiding sacks. He currently holds the NFL's lowest pressure-to-sack rate, which is Pro Football Focus' metric that determines how often a QB avoids sacks. Mahomes' 8.5% rate is incredibly low, evidenced by Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield's 11.5% rate, which is second-lowest.

These factors will play a huge role in keeping both Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa upright throughout the overwhelming majority of the game.

The game will eclipse 65 combined points

Bettors, hammer that current over of 51 points. This game will be a breeze when it comes to scoring touchdowns. 

A large part of that is the inefficiency of both red zone defenses. The Dolphins have the fifth-worst red zone defense and the Chiefs are around mid-pack. Opposing offenses score touchdowns 65.5% of the time against the Dolphins' red zone defense while it's around a 52.2% clip for the Chiefs' RZ defense.

Obviously, both teams can move the ball, and that's going to happen in this game. It's always harder to play football in the red zone, but both teams run the ball well enough to where they should be able to score points at a premium inside the opposing 20. 

Combine that with each team's big-play ability and it's easy to see why this will be a barnburner. And, what adds to the boldness of this prediction is, unless you're the Jags and staying overseas for consecutive weeks – teams notoriously get off to slow starts. 

That won't happen with both of these teams, that are extremely well-coached. The people of Frankfurt, among others, will be delighted to a wonderful treat on Sunday.