The Dolphins’ win over the Bucs narrows Miami’s 2026 NFL Draft fate — and not everyone will like it
The 2026 NFL Draft order is coming into focus for the Miami Dolphins after a Week 17 win against the Buccaneers.
Wins are a thing to be celebrated in the NFL. They’re hard to come by. And for a team that started this season 1-6, the Miami Dolphins have given their fanbase a surprising amount of wins down the stretch this season. They’re 6-3 in their last 9 games after that 1-6 start, but it still leaves a bitter taste in the mouth of some in the fan base. Wins, once mathematically eliminated from the postseason (and for some fans, even before that critical mass) are viewed as “counter-productive” and contribute to “purgatory” or “mediocrity”.
The idea is that if you’re going to be bad, be bad. I get it. It’s not for me, but I get it. And after Miami’s 20-17 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the NFL Draft pick fallout is worth mentioning. What’s even more notable is what could be Miami’s fate with their first pick if they were to follow up their win against the Buccaneers with an upset win over the New England Patriots to close the regular season.
NFL Draft pick fallout from Miami’s win over the Bucs and a new worst-case scenario
If the NFL Draft order were finalized today, the Dolphins would now be picking 12th in the first round. An Atlanta Falcons win tonight on Monday Night Football would push the Fins back up to 11th. The Dolphins entered Week 17 with a pick that was currently scheduled 1oth in the order — their 20-17 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers dropping them two spots in the queue. It is easily digestible, but it doesn’t take away the sting for fans hoping to see this pick reach its maximum potential — which mathematically entering Week 17 was 8th overall.
Had the Dolphins lost to the Bucs yesterday, you guessed it — the first round pick would be scheduled 8th overall going into the final weekend of play. Wins by Cincinnati and New Orleans would have pushed those teams into the same record as Miami and NFL Draft tiebreakers are rooted in strength of schedule, not head to head outcomes.
That’s the bad news for the Fins. With a week left to play, we can still re-calibrate expectations. Miami can still pick as high as 8th — the win did not cost them the mathematical ceiling of that selection. Miami would need one Falcons win (tonight), a Saints win over Atlanta in Week 18, a Bengals win over Cleveland in Week 18, and a Chiefs win over the Las Vegas Raiders next weekend paired with a Dolphins loss to the New England Patriots.
With a Dolphins win? Based on the strength of schedule tiebreakers, the Dolphins would only be able to pass Tampa Bay (who is also 7-9 going into Week 18) and Dallas (7-8-1). A Dolphins win paired with losses by those two teams could drop Miami as low as 14th.
But that’s all that’s left in the way of wiggle room. Miami will pick somewhere in that seven pick range in the 2026 NFL Draft from 8th overall to 14th overall. That is before any trades, of course. So with the full gambit put on display, you can decide for yourself whether or not Miami’s win over the Buccaneers was too bittersweet and costly, or instead an admirable effort in an industry where wins are everything.
Current 2026 NFL Draft order entering Week 18
- Las Vegas Raiders: 2-14
- New York Giants: 3-13
- New York Jets: 3-13
- Tennessee Titans: 3-13
- Arizona Cardinals: 3-13
- Cleveland Browns: 4-12
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