Miami Dolphins Week 16 playoff picture: Fins' chances hanging by the thinnest of threads after loss to Texans

The path for the Miami Dolphins to the playoff is, well, pretty narrow at this point. Like, pretty much like walking a tightrope across the Grand Canyon on a windy day. However, for those who hold out hope, there's still a mathematical chance that the Dolphins could find a way to reach the seventh and […]

Craig Smith — College Football & NFL Trending News Writer

Dec 17, 2024 11:47 AM EST

Dec 15, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Miami Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith (9) runs with the ball after a reception as Houston Texans safety Calen Bullock (21) attempts to make a tackle during the fourth quarter at NRG Stadium. — Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The path for the Miami Dolphins to the playoff is, well, pretty narrow at this point. Like, pretty much like walking a tightrope across the Grand Canyon on a windy day.

However, for those who hold out hope, there's still a mathematical chance that the Dolphins could find a way to reach the seventh and final wild card spot in the AFC, which is currently held by the Los Angeles Chargers at 8-6.

Per NFL.com's playoff picture engine, Miami has a 7% chance of making the playoffs. Here's how things look in the AFC:

Miami, obviously, has to win the rest of their games, starting on Sunday with the San Francisco 49ers. All room for error has basically been thrown away by the Dolphins. That'll be easier said than done against the physical Niners.

But if Miami can find a way to get past San Francisco and then win at Cleveland and the Jets to finish the season to reach 9-8, that's where things could open up if the Dolphins get some breaks to go their way.

The Dolphins would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with Indy if the two are tied for a playoff spot at the end of the season. The Colts also have the same conference record as Miami, so Miami wouldn't get past them in a three-team tie either per the NFL's tiebreaking procedures. In short, Indy needs to lose once more.

Next, Miami needs either Los Angeles (8-6) or Denver (9-5) to end their season at 9 wins. Fortunately, the two play on Thursday night, so one of them will absorb a loss. Ideally, that would be the Chargers, but the Broncos' schedule after LA is pretty brutal, with remaining games against the Ravens and Chiefs. If either LA or Denver finished at 9-8 with Miami, the Dolphins would have the better conference record and thus would win a tiebreaker. Miami would also win a tiebreaker with Cincinnati for the same reason, who is currently tied with the Dolphins at 6-8.

Here are the remaining schedules for Miami and their competition:

Miami: