Typically, a late-round rookie quarterback starting against a Todd Bowles defense is a recipe for disaster, but that’s not so much the case for Quinn Ewers and the Miami Dolphins offense heading into Week 17.

The Bucs defense has been reeling since the bye week and there are plenty of deficiencies that pop up when watching the tape.

Therefore, Mike McDaniel should be able to set Ewers up in some good spots on Sunday. With that being said, let’s talk about how it all breaks down.

How does Quinn Ewers handle Todd Bowles’ blitz packages?

Kyle: Ewers is four of six for 71 yards against blitzes thus far in his young NFL career. Both of his interceptions last week from his first career start were on non-blitz looks — one of which clanged directly off the face of a receiver. But the Dolphins’ offensive scheme doesn’t always do a great job of baking in answers to pressure and the team’s running backs have to consistently identify and adjust to threats. That leaves some vulnerabilities that Ewers may not be prepared for if Bowles chooses to attack him and get aggressive. How Bowles chooses to assemble a plan here is fascinating for a youngster who is just getting his feet wet.

Evan: It’s going to be very interesting to see how Bowles attacks Ewers, because the Bucs’ pass rush is in unknown territory. The attack has recorded more sacks and a solid pressure rate rushing four guys compared to your typical blitz. So, does Bowles load up and fire away or does he minimize the chaos and play more zone?

There’s also Bowles’ sequencing as of late. He’s really mistimed some of his blitz calls and they’ve had disastrous results (see last week’s Tetairoa McMillan touchdown before halftime). I doubt it’s affected his confidence, but it’s certain he needs to pick his spots a lot better moving forward.

Dolphins can effectively attack the middle of the field

Kyle: Ewers is 11 of 16 passing for 112 yards between the numbers thus far. This is where the Dolphins offense has historically buttered their bread. If Miami can unlock the middle of the field targets off of play action, you could see glimpses of the efficient and prolific run after catch offense that made Miami so dangerous in Mike McDaniel’s successful 2022 and 2023 campaigns. It simply hasn’t been there frequently enough, as teams have committed to squatting on the Dolphins’ preferred throwing windows in zone coverage and forcing the football elsewhere. It’s a riddle that has puzzled Miami too often and part of what Ewers is charged with helping to change.

Evan: Bowles’ defenses have a history of having issues defending the middle of the field and that’s especially true this year. Per Sports Info Solutions, the Bucs defense gives up 0.38 EPA per play and opposing offenses average a 59.2% success rate when quarterbacks target the middle of the field. Those numbers are third- and fifth-worst, respectively.

The reasons for the struggles are simple: Father Time has caught up with Lavonte David and SirVocea Dennis didn’t take the step forward the Bucs hoped he’d take. I fully expect Ewers and the passing attack to take hard swings, here.

If Quinn Ewers can “loosen up” he can get the Bucs defense to do the same

Kyle: The task for Ewers is to (responsibly) loosen things up. It’s not off to a great start. He’s 2 of 5 passing for 62 yards through his two game appearances — but both of his interceptions came on deep passes. He also had a tough miss to Waddle on an under-center route deep and outside the numbers against Cincinnati last week. Maybe Miami tries to hit one early in the game and catch the Bucs sleeping a bit? It could give them their best chance to hit one in rhythm and set a tone that helps pull the Bucs off zone landmarks and help the passing attack flow a little more fluidly.

Evan: The Bucs have allowed explosive plays through the air all year long. They’re tied for the 11th-most at 32 and 24 of those have been pass plays, which is 12th-fewest. Tampa Bay is also tied for the most touchdowns of 25+ yards (12) and seven of those are passes.

Starting cornerback Zyon McCollum is also on IR. So, the Dolphins have to incorporate some shots into their game plan because it’s way more likely than not they’ll connect more than they miss.

That’s the worst development that can arise for an already-frustrated Bucs defense and it’ll go a long way toward helping the Dolphins win if Ewers and Co. can make it happen.

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