The Miami Dolphins’ recent short-yardage regression is even worse than you thought
You knew it had gotten bad. It’s worse than you think.
Name a more iconic duo than the Miami Dolphins and struggling in short-yardage situations. I’ll wait. The Dolphins have been a frustrating team in short yardage under the watch of head coach Mike McDaniel, but things had appeared to turn the corner. Between Weeks 1 through 10, the Miami Dolphins had the NFL’s best conversion rate in third & 2 or shorter.
Over the season’s first ten weeks, Miami converted nearly 80% of those third downs (78%, to be exact). What has happened since has been one of the most stunning course reversals of the season for Miami — especially considering it coincides with this offense finding themselves offensively.
The Miami Dolphins have gone from first to worst in short-yardage conversions overnight
There’s poor performance in short yardage. And then there’s what the Dolphins have put on display since Week 11. Miami’s conversion rate on 3rd & 2 or less is just 15.4% — the Dolphins are averaging -1.1 yards per play in these opportunities. The next worst team in the NFL, the Washington Commanders, is averaging 1.3 yards per play. The Dolphins’ issues here are off the charts bad. They’ve tried just about everyone, too.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has attempted to pass the ball. He’s attempted to scramble. He’s tossed the ball to De’Von Achane and turned around to hand off to Ollie Gordon from under center. They’ve had two successful plays in 13 attempts — a one-yard score from Gordon late in the win over the Washington Commanders and a 4-yard run by Jaylen Wright against the New York Jets.
These kind of constants have terrorized the Dolphins for too long. It’s the kind of issue that, if head coach Mike McDaniel is brought back, Miami needs to do something different with. Since McDaniel was hired in 2022, the Dolphins are the only team in the NFL to convert less than half of their 3rd & 2 or less opportunities — that’s four years of league-worst short-yardage work.
We knew it had gotten bad. I’m not sure anyone really knew it had gotten this bad, though. Miami has one more chance to get some good conversions on tape for this offseason — and it comes against a Patriots team that is conceding more than 70% of opponent conversions. No pressure, Miami.
NFL’s best third down short-yardage
teams in 2025
- New York Jets – 74.4%
- Cleveland Browns – 72.2%
- San Francisco 49ers – 71.7%
- Pittsburgh Steelers – 71.1%
- Chicago Bears – 70.7%
- 3rd & 2 or shorter for entire 2025 season
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