There is a yet to be fully-explored secondary discussion to the current quarterback dilemma facing the Miami Dolphins. Where could or would Tua Tagovailoa land if the Dolphins move on from him after the 2025 season?

There’s been much speculation about whether Miami will pull the plug. But thanks to a new flood of intel on Tagovailoa’s circumstances in Miami from ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, we have fresh insight into what teams could make sense for someone inside the league ecosystem.

Fowler provided a comprehensive overview of the layers of this situation. One quote, in particular, focused on where Miami’s quarterback could land, stands out for the specific teams the source’s criteria identify as potential destinations.

One personnel executive laid out the proper target list for the Dolphins if they’re intent on shopping Tua Tagovailoa

“If I was looking for a quarterback for a bad weather team, I wouldn’t have much interest in him,” a high-ranking personnel evaluator with an NFL team said. “The play hasn’t been good enough, and you can’t trust him to stay healthy. If you’re playing in a warm climate or indoors and you have an offense with elements of a quick passing game and play-action, you can make it work for a year.”

— ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler on the future outlook for Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa

This school of thought makes plenty of sense. Miami’s big challenge, if they’re fully invested in moving on from Tagovailoa this offseason, will be finding trade parameters that a team would agree to as a means of saving SOME of his salary.

Fowler’s piece does a wonderful job outlining the challenges involved in that effort. Whether through trade or free agency, the teams that meet this personnel evaluator’s criteria are worth identifying.

Indoor and warm-weather teams that could need quarterbacks in some capacity this offseason:

• Arizona Cardinals
• Indianapolis Colts (Daniel Jones dependent)
• Las Vegas Raiders
• Minnesota Vikings (competition/backup for JJ McCarthy)

Among these teams, Minnesota has negative cap space for 2026. That further diminishes its likelihood of being a trade option. Las Vegas, on the other hand, has in excess of $100 million in 2026 cap space. Arizona and Indianapolis are in the middle of the pack but need to sort out their respective quarterback situations with Kyler Murray (also under contract for big money) and Daniel Jones (a pending free agent with a torn Achilles).

Among these four teams, Arizona and Indianapolis rank inside the top-12 in the NFL in pass attempts this season in pass attempts under 2.50 seconds. The Dolphins this season? They rank 12th.

If Tagovailoa were to be released, a team like the San Francisco 49ers could be an off-the-board target to watch as a backup signing — especially if the team tries to cash out high on a strong performance from Mac Jones this season. Jones is under contract for 2026 and could be traded for a mid-round draft pick. The Tagovailoa being released pathway opens the door for essentially any team to sign him, as they’d all be bidding on a minimum-salary deal in 2026.

There’s plenty of ball game left for this saga. But it’s also worth noting that Miami, with a new era of the organization underway, may be eager to transition away from the maligned quarterback and avoid unnecessary distractions or complications for its offseason program. It all starts with a general manager hire, and that process can start in about a week and a half.

Miami Dolphins News

The Dolphins’ unfolding quarterback crisis may push Miami to do something drastic in search of a pivot from Tua Tagovailoa this offseason

Expect the speculation to continue in the months ahead for the Miami Dolphins.

Kyle Crabbs