Here's how far the Vikings can move up in Round 1 of the draft after their free agency trade with the Texans
As expected, the Minnesota Vikings have made all sorts of headlines during the first week of free agency. And, as expected, much of the talk has centered around the current state of the quarterback position and where the franchise goes after losing Kirk Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons.The team signed Sam Darnold to what is […]
As expected, the Minnesota Vikings have made all sorts of headlines during the first week of free agency. And, as expected, much of the talk has centered around the current state of the quarterback position and where the franchise goes after losing Kirk Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons.
The team signed Sam Darnold to what is a starting-caliber contract, but people who follow the league closely know Darnold isn't the answer and that the Vikings would certainly add another signal-caller to compete for the starting gig in 2024.
That idea is one step closer toward coming to fruition after Friday's trade with the Houston Texans. The Vikings sent the 42nd overall pick (second round), the 188th overall pick (sixth round), and a 2025 second-rounder to the Texans in exchange for the 23rd overall pick (first round) and the 232nd overall pick (seventh round).
Now, the Vikings have that extra first-rounder needed to move from No. 11 in order to get their guy. But, just how far up could they actually go when strictly speaking trading picks?
The Vikings could trade with the Arizona Cardinals and move all the way up to No. 4
The first and obvious trade target for the Vikings is the Arizona Cardinals, who currently hold the fourth overall pick in the draft. Per Rich Hill's draft trade value chart, trading Nos. 11 and 23 would net the Cardinals a +122 return, which is equivalent to the Vikings receiving the 48th overall pick (second round) or later, along with the fourth overall pick.
The closest pick the Cardinals have to send with No. 4 is No. 66, which is worth 76 points on Hill's chart. That still nets a +46 return, which is considered an overpay, but that's what you have to do if you want to move into the top-5. So, hypothetically, the Vikings would get picks Nos. 4 and 66 in this trade. They are currently without a third-rounder.
And, typically, a move into the top-5 would warrant a 2025 pick, as well. But here's the key: Both of the Vikings' first-rounders are in this year's draft, obviously, which is huge. Sure, the San Francisco 49ers had to pay three first-rounders, as well as more capital, to move from No. 12 to No. 3 in 2021, but their first-rounders were all in different drafts (2021, 2022, and 2023). That lessens their value, especially when the official selections are unknown.
In this scenario, the Cardinals know exactly what they're getting. Moving up to No. 4 is totally plausible for the Vikings. Especially if they involve Justin Jefferson in the trade (which they totally shouldn't at all, but just in case they're thinking about it, it would make sense for the Cardinals to bite on that, all day).
Could they move up even higher? There have been reports about the New England Patriots possibly trading back from No. 3, but that's doubtful, in my eyes. However, moving up to No. 3 is a mere 23 points extra, so it's feasible, as well. But, considering New England's QB needs, it'd be even more of an overpay than moving to No. 4, so it's best for the Vikings to limit moving up to No. 4.
And obviously, if the Vikings can move up to No. 4, they can move up anywhere in close proximity to that selection, afterward. In all, the Vikings are in a great spot to make a big move when the draft rolls around.
