Kevin O’Connell’s major advantage in one-score games can’t be quantified, and it’s the biggest reason for the Vikings’ success
Don’t let the analytics fool you, relationships matter
One of the biggest reasons given for the Minnesota Vikings taking a step backwards in the 2025 season was their record in one-score games. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has been incredible in one-score games over his three years, going 21-9 in games decided by eight points or less. That’s an incredible mark for many reasons.
However, the discussion about those wins always boils down to one thing: the Vikings will regress to the mean (0.500 win percentage) because you can’t sustain it. There is plenty of data that says it’s not a stable metric, and regression year-to-year is normal (see 2022 vs. 2023 for the Vikings), but what if it is a constant because of O’Connell?
Kevin O’Connell has the secret sauce for one score games
Analytics are a great thing. They can help us better understand the game with different algorithms and advanced stats to help us understand the game. One thing that it cannot actually quantify is how good coaching matters. You can’t put together an algorithm to quantify the human element of the game, especially when it comes to the confidence from your coaching staff.
That is exactly what O’Connell brings to the Vikings. While they spent the first three seasons working on a rebuild of the roster, they never stopped trying to win, and they won big with a 34-17 record. The entire roster has bought into what O’Connell is doing and it’s been consistent the entire time.
Monday night’s game against the Chicago Bears was a huge example of that. O’Connell connects with these players on a deeper level. The Josh Dobbs miracle win over the Atlanta Falcons personified that logic. He had the entire roster believing they could win that game, and it came to fruition. You can see O’Connell’s reaction at the end, personifying that belief.
Monday night evoked many different emotions from fans and players alike. However, the one thing that stood out was how much O’Connell continued to believe in starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy despite the struggles in the first half.
“J.J. McCarthy, for him to make some of the plays he did, I told him at halftime, you are going to bring us back to win this game,” said O’Connell. “And the look in his eye was fantastic. The best thing is just the belief I felt from the team, the unit. And ultimately, that doesn’t get done without him in the second half — two passing touchdowns and then the critical rushing touchdown at the end.”
That belief O’Connell showed in McCarthy is arguably the catalyst of why they ended up winning, and you could see it on the sidelines.
“I just felt it was a very unique game from a standpoint of, obviously, you have to just put blinders on and just keep playing,” said O’Connell. “Every rep for him is an unbelievable experience. It’s an experience for me with him. It’s an experience for our offense. There were times when J.J. had to overcome some things around him, and he just kept playing. He didn’t necessarily alter the way he was playing. There would be a play out there, they’d tip the ball – it was just for a while there, just felt like everything that could go wrong kind of did. Many, many times, teams will wilt in those circumstances, and ours did not. It’s a credit to our players. It’s a credit to what they’ve built in that locker room. And we’re 1-0 with a thousand things to clean up across the board. The defense knows they’re going to have to battle all year long. After the opening drive touchdown, I think next nine drives they only gave up a field goal. I’m just proud of the group. But J.J., especially, heck of a growth moment for him and one that I had total belief in him that we were going to figure it out together.”
When it comes to deep dive analytics, you can’t put any sort of value on what O’Connell’s coaching does to elevate a team. Winning in close games is a difficult thing to predict year over year, which is why the discussions about regression take place. However, there is something to having the belief in your players along with the strategic element, which matters a lot when it comes to close games.
The data isn’t wrong when it comes to a large sample size, but in a single game, there isn’t anyone better than O’Connell right now, and that’s going to matter this year.
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