Vikings NFL Draft History: Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's draft pick success is much more complex than it looks on the surface

The first round of the NFL Draft in recent years has been a mixed bag for the Minnesota Vikings. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has been heavily criticized for his drafting, with the majority of that criticism from a 10-player 2022 NFL Draft class that has just one starter remaining on the roster going into 2025: WR […]

Tyler Forness — NFL & College Football News Writer
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Apr 25, 2024; Detroit, MI, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Dallas Turner poses after being selected by the Minnesota Vikings as the No. 17 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft at Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza.
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The first round of the NFL Draft in recent years has been a mixed bag for the Minnesota Vikings.

General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has been heavily criticized for his drafting, with the majority of that criticism from a 10-player 2022 NFL Draft class that has just one starter remaining on the roster going into 2025: WR Jalen Nailor, who is the third wide receiver for the Vikings. It's especially frustrating for fans since Rick Spielman consistently found talented players on day three.

Even with that poor class, Adofo-Mensah has improved his process significantly over the last two seasons. When we look back at how Adofo-Mensah has drafted over his career, how successful have his drafts been? Well, it's been better than you might realize because the success threshold of each round is different.

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Round 1

Successful: 1
Failed: 1 
To Be determined: 2

  • 2022: S Lewis Cine
  • 2023: WR Jordan Addison
  • 2024: QB J.J. McCarthy
  • 2024: EDGE Dallas Turner

The first round has been somewhat of a mixed bag for the Vikings. Cine was a disaster of a selection after trading down from 12 to 32 and missing out on Kyle Hamilton. Since then, it's evident that the process for Adofo-Mensh has evolved for the better. 

Addison was a major hit, having over 900 yards receiving and 19 total touchdowns over his first two seasons. He's been the perfect complement to Jefferson.

Things do project very well with both McCarthy and Turner, but we can't count them as hits just yet. They have a lot more to prove.

Round 2

Successful: 0.5
Failed: 1.5
T.J. Hockenson: 1

  • 2022: CB Andrew Booth
  • 2022: RG Ed Ingram

Round two is a complicated one to answer for two reasons:

  • The Vikings have traded their last two second-round picks
  • How to quantify the success of Ed Ingram

Let's go with the first point. The Vikings traded their 2023 second-round pick for Hockenson, which has been a home run. Adofo-Mensah deserves credit for that. The second one is a much more complicated answer, as Adofo-Mensah didn't need to acquire a second first-round pick to get their quarterback of the future. He misread the market there, but they got two top prospects, which is always a good thing.

The other element is Ingram. He struggled way too often at points in his Vikings tenure, where he made 41 starts at right guard. I believe he was much better than the consensus does. His very aggressive playstyle led to bad losses that looked way worse than a standard loss. You did get nearly three full seasons of a starter out of Ingram, hence the half point.

Round 3

Successful: 0
Failed: 1
To Be Determined: 1
T.J. Hockenson: 1

  • 2022: ILB Brian Asamoah II
  • 2023: CB Mekhi Blackmon

The Blackmon pick is still up in the air, and their 2024 third-round pick was used to acquire Hockenson. The frustrating one was how things have turned out with Asamoah. They selected him at 66th overall with the idea that he would thrive in the version of the Vic Fangio defense that Ed Donatell was running. He showed flashes as a rookie, but never was able to capitalize on that success. 

The Vikings need to hit on talented players in the third round to round out their roster, as the 2021 NFL Draft (not Adofo-Mensah's fault) is haunting them.

Round 4

Successful: 1
Failed: 0
To Be Determined: 1
Tragedy: 1

Let's get this out of the way. The pick of Jackson is in it's own category due to the tragic nature of his car accident that took his life last July. It's unfair to call his selection a failure, even though he never played a down.

The other two picks are a mixed bag. Even though he flamed out, Evans was a solid starter for an entire season. That's a successful pick in my book. What criteria is deemed for a successful pick gets easier as the draft progresses.

The Vikings do still believe in Ward, but he needs to show something this offseason, especially since Harrison Smith and Josh Metellus have uncertain futures.

Round 5

Successful: 1
Failed: 3

  • 2022: DE Esezi Otomewo
  • 2022: RB Ty Chandler
  • 2023: DT Jaquelin Roy
  • 2023: QB Jaren Hall

This has been a tough round for the Vikings to find success. Only one of their four fifth-round picks stayed with the team after their rookie season, and that's Chander. He's deemed a success due to his special teams acumen and the ability to fill in at running back.

Round 6

Successful: 2
Failed: 0
To Be Determined: 2

  • 2022: OT Vederian Lowe
  • 2022: WR Jalen Nailor
  • 2024: OT Walker Rouse
  • 2024: K Will Reichard

The sixth round has been really good to the Vikings. Adofo-Mensah's first two picks resulted in a wide receiver three in Nailor, and they flipped Lowe for a sixth-round pick after his rookie season in a trade with the New England Patriots. Getting your pick back for a player that might not have made the roster is a good business move.

Rouse hasn't gotten much of an opportunity to play, but there is potential for him down the line, especially with the potential to kick inside. Reichard had a good rookie year, but with the kicker position being so volatile, let's see him do it for one more season.

Round 7

Successful: 0
Failed: 2
To Be Determined: 2

  • 2022: TE Nick Muse
  • 2023: RB DeWayne McBride
  • 2024: OG Michael Jurgens
  • 2024: DT Levi Drake Rodriguez

The seventh round is difficult to figure out for anyone, as it's basically taking your preference of UDFAs. Muse was a solid TE3 but he never really got a chance to be the guy and McBride was just a bust. They hope that Jurgens and Rodriguez will do something moving forward, as they are high on both players.

Overall

Successful Picks: 5.5
Failed Picks: 8.5
To Be Determined: 8
Tragedy: 1
T.J. Hockenson: 1

It's not a great track record so far, but the success of the first three drafts could look much better once we get some more data on a bunch of different players. The biggest aspect where Adofo-Mensah has struggled is on day two. They haven't had a true successful selection on day two, with Ingram kind of a success in my eyes and Blackmon still up in the air. Championship teams need to have success on day two, and Adofo-Mensah needs to remedy that.

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