Vikings can't chug the quarterback Kool Aid heading into the 2024 NFL Draft
Going all-in on a franchise quarterback can easily turn into the best move an NFL franchise has ever made. It can also be the worst decision, ever, and not only can it sink a team's short-term aspirations – it can wipe out the long-term prospects, as well. Mainly due to the fact that these franchise-changing moves […]
Going all-in on a franchise quarterback can easily turn into the best move an NFL franchise has ever made.
It can also be the worst decision, ever, and not only can it sink a team's short-term aspirations – it can wipe out the long-term prospects, as well. Mainly due to the fact that these franchise-changing moves occur in the first round, where draft capital is at its highest in terms of value and price.
For every Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jordan Love, and Mike Vick, there's a Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, Mitch Trubisky, Paxton Lynch, J.P. Losman, and, yep, Ryan Leaf.
In fact, more often than not, moving up is a failed venture, rather than a successful one.
Seventeen of the 28 quarterbacks who were acquired via first-round trade never won a playoff game with the teams that drafted them, and only nine of those quarterbacks signed an extension with the teams that drafted them before the expiration of their respective rookie contracts. (Note: Jordan Love of the Packers, Justin Fields of the Bears and Bryce Young of the Panthers are all still playing on their rookie contracts with their original teams and could land extensions.) – Nick Kosmider, The Athletic
It's a major reason why the Minnesota Vikings have to be extremely careful with how it navigates this year's draft. It's obvious there's an interest in trading up for one of the premier quarterbacks after the recent trade with the Houston Texans that netted them the 23rd overall pick. The question, at this point, is simply how high the Vikings need to move up in order to get their guy and how much it will cost.
A lot of people are pointing to the San Francisco 49ers' trade with the Miami Dolphins back in 2021 when SF moved up from No. 12 to No. 3. The 9ers had to send three first-rounders and a third-rounder in order to climb the ladder. These days, it makes sense to connect the Arizona Cardinals at No. 4 to the Vikings at No. 11, which is almost an identical trade in terms of where each team is slotted.
It shouldn't take anywhere near the same amount of capital to make that move this year, however. Because, two of the three first-rounders in the 9ers-Fins trade involved future picks, whereas the Vikings would be trading two present picks. Meaning, the Dolphins didn't know where they'd be picking in 2022 and 2023, whereas the Cardinals know they'll be picking at 11 and 23.
There's also the fact that the 49ers are/were a good team at the time of the trade. Therefore, the odds pointed toward the Dolphins picking in the back end of the first round in '22 and '23. That automatically increases the value of picks Nos. 11 and 23 to the point where the Cardinals would even have to send something back in return.
But, there's a lot of steam gathering around the idea of the Vikings trading up to No. 3 and that would be a massive mistake.
3. Minnesota Vikings (from NE*): Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
*Trade: Vikings trade No. 11, No. 23, a first-round pick in 2025 and a second-round pick in 2026 to the Patriots for No. 3.
Look, climbing this high and parting with three first-rounders is not for the faint of heart. But if you’re going to swing, why not swing big? The Vikings’ connection to Maye is well-known: Quarterbacks coach Josh McCown coached him at Myers Park High School in Charlotte, N.C. But even before McCown, Vikings scouts had eyed Maye for several years. He may need some time to develop, but that might align perfectly with head coach Kevin O’Connell’s views on what a young quarterback needs to become successful. Minnesota has an experienced QB room and loads of skill players. Now’s the time to try to find its quarterback of the future. — Alec Lewis, The Athletic
A trade per the scenario above would be a major mistake and a gross overpay on the Vikings part. They cannot afford -both literally and figuratively- to send both first-rounders, along with next year's first-rounder, to move up to No. 3 with the Patriots.
It makes so much more sense to trade with the Cardinals, who don't need a QB and won't be inclined to jack the price up, like the Patriots. Per Rich Hill's draft trade value chart, trading Nos. 11 and 23 would net the Cardinals a +122 return, which is equivalent to the Vikings receiving the 48th overall pick (second round) or later, along with the fourth overall pick. The closest pick the Cardinals have to send with No. 4 is No. 66, which is worth 76 points on Hill's chart. That still nets a +46 return, which is considered an overpay, but that's what you have to do if you want to move into the top-5. So, hypothetically, the Vikings would get picks Nos. 4 and 66 in this trade. They are currently without a third-rounder.
After this, the Vikings wouldn't pick again until the fourth round in 2024 and the move would also leave the Vikings without a first- and second-round pick in 2025 (and no second-rounder in 2026, even). They'd have just one pick in the third-round, fourth-round, two in the fifth, and potentially one in the seventh, next year. Sure, there's a chance they get two third round compensatory picks in 2025, but that's not a guarantee and even then, they'd be picks at the end of the round.
The Vikings still have a few holes to fill, overall, but they primarily need depth, which is where young players on cheap contracts really come in handy. This kind of move would strip the Vikings of that opportunity, which isn't conducive for a team looking to start a new era, so to speak.
And, most importantly, a miss on whomever they'd pick at No. 3 would set this franchise back by about 5-7 years.
The Vikings have to be smart, here, and they can't mortgage the future for a unknown prospect. It's different if a guy like Lamar Jackson is available (technically), but even if a team traded for Jackson last year, it would've cost just two first-rounders. It's so easy to see the irony, it's not even funny.
Let's just hope the Vikings are aware of it, too.
