History sheds light on whether popular Vikings NFL Draft target Grey Zabel can make leap from FCS and NDSU

The Minnesota Vikings have a very interesting decision to make in the first round of the NFL Draft. They don't have any dire needs as we move forward, but some of their needs deserved to be considered more than others. One of those is still the interior of the offensive line. Left guard could use […]

Tyler Forness — NFL & College Football News Writer
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Jan 30, 2025; Mobile, AL, USA; National team offensive lineman Grey Zabel of North Dakota State (77) works against National team defensive lineman Darius Alexander of Toledo (9) during Senior Bowl practice for the National team at Hancock Whitney Stadium.
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The Minnesota Vikings have a very interesting decision to make in the first round of the NFL Draft.

They don't have any dire needs as we move forward, but some of their needs deserved to be considered more than others. One of those is still the interior of the offensive line.

Left guard could use an upgrade. Blake Brandel is the starter, but Michael Jurgens and Walter Rouse could potentially take over from him. A portion of the fanbase has been begging for Alabama offensive guard Tyler Booker, but that doesn't make a lot of sense from a schematic standpoint. The other interior offensive lineman getting hype is North Dakota State's Grey Zabel, who is a significantly better scheme fit.

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History tell us the likelihood of Grey Zabel's success 

One of the intriguing things about Zabel is he played at the FCS level at North Dakota State. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has only taken two players in the NFL Draft from non-power four schools, with both of them coming in round seven. To be fair, Adofo-Mensah hasn't had a ton of opportunity early to take players from the lower levels.

Regardless of how good Zabel is, it's quite the jump to go from the G5 level, let alone the FCS to succeed in the NFL. So, I wanted to see if we could learn from history. Over the last 15 NFL Drafts, there were 18 offensive linemen taken in the first two rounds from small schools with the bolded players being successful picks.

Editors note: Utah was still in the Mountain West until the 2011 season, hence Zane Beadles being included.

  • 2010: Idaho G Mike Iupati, Utah G Zane Beadles, UMass G Vladimir Ducasse
  • 2011: Villanova OT Benjamin Ijalana
  • 2012: Midwestern State G Amini Silatolu
  • 2013: None
  • 2014: Nevada OT Joel Bitonio
  • 2015: Colorado State OT Ty Sambrailo, Hobart OG Ali Marpet
  • 2016: None
  • 2017: Western Michigan OT Taylor Moton
  • 2018: Nevada OG Austin Corbett, UTEP OG Will Hernandez
  • 2019: Northern Illinois OT Max Scharping
  • 2020: Louisiana-Lafayette OG Robert Hunt, Boise State OT Ezra Cleveland
  • 2021: NDSU OT Dillon Radunz
  • 2022: Northern Iowa OT Trevor Penning, Tulsa OT Tyler Smith, Chattanooga OG Cole Strange
  • 2023: NDSU OT Cody Mauch
  • 2024: None

Of the 18 players, only five of them were first-round picks with three of those had success: Iupati, Beadles, and Smith. Also, you can deem 10 of them as successful selections overall. A 55.5% success rate for the top 64 picks is a good rate to have, especially since your expected success rate for those spots would be significantly lower, especially in round two.

The other noteworthy element is that two of the 10 successful linemen came from the FCS level (Iupati, Mauch) with a third coming from division three's Hobart College (Marpet)

It's especially so when you consider that Zabel comes from the FCS powerhouse of NDSU, who have the talent and coaching of a power four team. It's just a different world in Fargo, North Dakota, compared to other teams at lower levels. It's also worth pointing out that nine of the 10 players who did have sustained success did so at guard with only Taylor Moton staying at tackle. Tyler Smith has played some left tackle with the Dallas Cowboys, but he's settled in at left guard.

If you think Zabel is worth the 24th overall pick, history says that FCS offensive linemen have a good enough success profile that it shouldn't deter you from using that as a reason to draft him.

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