Vikings' potential draft gamble will send the franchise in completely different directions
Kirk Cousins has been an interesting talking point for Minnesota Vikings fans over the course of his tenure. Some argue he is a top-10 quarterback, some say he is top-15, with some others saying he is top-20. He is 46-33-1 as the Vikings' starting quarterback, but he's just 1-2 in the playoffs; with the furthest […]
Kirk Cousins has been an interesting talking point for Minnesota Vikings fans over the course of his tenure.
Some argue he is a top-10 quarterback, some say he is top-15, with some others saying he is top-20.
He is 46-33-1 as the Vikings' starting quarterback, but he's just 1-2 in the playoffs; with the furthest round being the Divisional Round back in 2020.
Is a change needed under center for the Vikings to push them further into the playoffs? If so, what is the best route to take?
First, we need to address Kirk Cousins' contract. He's in the final year of his deal which counts $20+ million against the 2023 cap, but he will still count $28.5 million against the cap in 2024 due to the void years associated with the various restructures and other maneuvers involving his contract.
This actually helps the Vikings when it comes to possibly taking a quarterback in the draft, though. The two best routes to take when it comes to circumventing Cousins' dead cap/void year ramifications in 2024 is to either re-sign him or have a cheap, but reliable quarterback on the roster, aka, a solid QB on a rookie deal. Fortunately for the Vikings, there are plenty of options in this draft.
If the Vikings end up taking a quarterback in the draft, we obviously need to address the cost of moving up in the draft. This is very plausible considering the recent report stating six teams inquired about trading up with the Cardinals in the draft.
Now a trade-up from 23 all the way to 3 would require a significant package, to say the least. For this we will be forced to compare the package the Atlanta Falcons sent to the Browns back in 2011 as a comparison.
In that deal, the Falcons sent picks 26, 59, 124 in the 2024 draft. Picks 22, and 118 in the 2012 draft. In return, they received the No. 6 overall pick.
So let's say the Vikings fall in love with one of the top prospects at QB this year and they want to make a deal with Arizona. What would that look like?
A package with that big of a move up, would obviously require multiple first-round picks. Now how many is a more difficult question. I'd venture to say somewhere in the neighborhood of three first rounders. They will probably have to add more on top of it to get the Cardinals to accept the deal as well so we will throw in Danielle Hunter.
So the proposed trade is:
Vikings: Send 2023 1st round pick, 2024 first round pick, 2025 first round pick, and Danielle Hunter.
Cardinals Send number 3 overall.
This is a huge jump, and it mortgages the future of the Vikings in a big way. So with the No. 3 overall pick do they take the risk on the ceiling of an Anthony Richardson, or are they comfortable with the floor of a CJ Stroud? Or does Bryce Young fall into their lap?
Regardless of who it is, the Vikings are only making a trade up of that caliber for their unquestioned guy. The one that they believe can be the cornerstone of the franchise for the next decade plus. In a lot of team's minds, that's always worth the risk, and a lot of times, it is.
If this move fails, however, the Vikings will not only have mortgaged their immediate future, but they missed out on hitting on a top-3 draft pick, which is never a good thing.
Now let's talk about a more plausible trade up. How about one with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? The Buccaneers pick at 19. So a trade up from 23 to 19 is much more palpable for the Vikings, and fans alike.
Let's say the proposed trade is this:
Vikings: Send 2023 1st round pick and 3rd round pick (87 overall)
Buccaneers: Send 19 overall
In this situation the top three QBs in Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, and Anthony Richardson will all be gone. So who does that leave the Vikings with?
Maybe Will Levis? He has been a popular selection for the Colts at four, so I would doubt he makes it to 19, although it is not impossible.
Maybe Hendon Hooker? He has been on the Vikings radar as he has been on a 30 visit with the team.
Hooker would be a massive reach in the first round to me personally. Hooker sits with a third round grade from me.
Taking Hooker is not a bad plan, as he is coming off a torn ACL, and it would give him time to recover and learn behind Cousins; while the Vikings wait for his contract to expire. Just taking him in round one is where my issue lies.
Regardless, if the Vikings make a big trade up, a small trade up, or even if they trade up at all – it will be a risk. And the whatever decision they make has the potential to send the franchise in a completely different direction.