The Vikings' success in one phase is pivotal to beating the Lions

It's going to be a huge matchup for the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday when they take on the Detroit Lions. The winner will have a significant advantage in the NFC North moving forward, and the Vikings could take an unofficial three-game lead over the Lions. There are a lot ways to look at this game […]

Tyler Forness — NFL & College Football News Writer
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Oct 6, 2024; London, United Kingdom; New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) carries the ball against Minnesota Vikings linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. (0) in the second half at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

It's going to be a huge matchup for the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday when they take on the Detroit Lions. The winner will have a significant advantage in the NFC North moving forward, and the Vikings could take an unofficial three-game lead over the Lions.

There are a lot ways to look at this game between two of the best teams across the National Football League. Both teams are stacked with talent on both sides of the ball and can take control in multiple ways. Even so, there is one area that the Vikings can exploit to get the win. 

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Vikings need to, and can stop the run

One of the calling cards for the Lions has been the running game. With David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs in the backfield carrying the ball, they have been excellent in many ways.

One of the biggest impacts on the Lions' offense has been the running game. When you look at the advanced metrics, the running game has been significantly more efficient than the passing game, something that bucks any type of conventional wisdom.

This season, the Lions run game has been twice as efficient as the pass when you look at neutral situations. In order to do that, we went to rbsdm.com and moved the win probability to within 10-90%. The Lions splits with EPA are significant.

  • Dropback EPA/play: 0.107 (13th in NFL)
  • Rush EPA/play: 0.203 (1st in NFL)

They are gashing other teams consistently and their rushing success rate at 54.6% (1st in NFL) keeps the offense consistent and moving down the field. With the offensive line being a pivotal part of the offense, it makes the running game so much easier to manifest.

If you are the Vikings, it's somewhat worrisome to face a house of a rushing attack like the Lions. However, the run defense for the Vikings has been great. When you look at the same parameters that we used for neutral situations when the Lions run the ball, the Vikings are even better when defending the run.

  • Rush EPA/play allowed: -0.340 (2nd in NFL)
  • Rush success rate allowed: 33.3% (5th in NFL)

The Vikings have been able to control the opposing offenses consistently. They also rank second in PFF run defense grade which is really impressive since the defensive line is arguably the worst singular unit on the team.

The one caveat with the Vikings' successful run defense is they might not have linebacker Blake Cashman, who has yet to practice this week due to a turf toe injury. He's been tremendous in all phases of the game and not having him could be a major factor.

If the Vikings want to win the game, they oddly enough need to force the Lions to become a dropback passing team.

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