How NFL evaluators rank 2023 NFL Draft QB prospects post-combine
Anthony Richardson is gaining steam after a record-setting NFL combine workout
If you were to combine the skill sets of the top four quarterbacks in the 2023 NFL Draft, you’d probably wind up with the greatest QB prospect of all time.
Coming out of the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine, which saw Florida’s Anthony Richardson produce a record-setting workout, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud show off his precise accuracy, Alabama’s Bryce Young weigh in just above 200 pounds and Will Levis showcase his cannon of an arm, we asked NFL executives, coaches, scouts and analytics analysts to rank those four quarterbacks.
One analytics analyst found the task too difficult because of the diverse set of skills each quarterback possesses.
“They all practically play different positions, and it’ll be highly dependent on what a team values,” he said. “Richardson is the developmental athlete, Stroud is the processor, Young is the creator, while Levis is the gunslinger. Haven’t seen a class with top prospects so distinct in quite some time.”
It’s a fair point, which is why one national scout laughed after giving his list.
“Every scout's and every team's will be different,” he said.
He was close. Three NFL evaluators did actually share the same ranking.
This isn’t necessarily how the quarterbacks will come off the board. It’s simply how the respondents to our poll ranked the four top quarterbacks. In what order they're drafted largely depends on which QB-needy team winds up trading up with the Chicago Bears to pick first overall.
The Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions, Las Vegas Raiders, Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers all are picking in the top 10 and could use a current or future starter. Picking just outside the top 10 are the Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers and Washington Commanders, all of whom also should be keeping their eyes on the QBs.
1. Bryce Young, Alabama
Young finished our poll first based on a points system but had one fewer first-place vote than Stroud. He did not work out or throw at the combine but did measure in at 5-foot-10 1/8, 204 pounds. He's the current betting favorite to go No. 1 overall.
“I don’t think Bryce Young walks around at 204,” a scout said. “Have to be okay taking a small, slight guy high.”
Another scout had a difficult time ranking Young and Stroud but ultimately put the Alabama product one spot higher.
Young measured in the same height as Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray but three pounds lighter. Based on appearance, he is sizably thinner than Murray and not as athletic. Young rushed 34 times for 311 yards with four touchdowns in 2022.
Young led the top four QB prospects with a 91.3 PFF passing grade while completing 64.5 percent of his passes for 3,325 yards with 32 touchdowns and just five interceptions in 2022. He had the lowest mark in PFF's turnover-worthy play rate and the second-highest mark in PFF's big-time throw rate. His 77.4 adjusted completion percentage led the top four QBs while his 10.0 average depth of target was third.
Young had the highest PFF passing grade under pressure and the highest PFF passing grade on deep balls. He was pressured on more dropbacks than any of the other top QBs.
2. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
Stroud received five first-place votes to Stroud's four but also received one last-place vote to Young's zero.
Stroud measured in at 6-foot-3, 214 pounds and threw the ball well in drills but declined to test.
Out of the top four QBs, Stroud led with a 65.9 completion percentage, 3,684 passing yards, 41 touchdown passes and a 7.0-percent mark in PFF’s big-time throw rate. His 54.1 adjusted completion percentage, 1,082 yards and 12 touchdowns on deep balls also ranked first.
He ranked second-lowest with six interceptions behind Young, and he had the second-highest average depth of targets at 10.7 yards. His 3.6-percent mark in PFF’s turnover-worthy play rate was tied for third with Levis, and his 72.8 adjusted completion percentage was also third. He had the second-lowest completion percentage under pressure at 41.3 percent and faced pressure the least of the top four QBs.
Stroud, who said at the combine that he regrets not running more, picked up 188 yards on 42 carries in 2022.
He currently has the third-best odds to be taken first overall.
3. Anthony Richardson, Florida
Richardson received just one first-place vote, but one executive believes it’s not out of the realm of possibility for the uber-athletic Florida product to go No. 1 overall after running a 4.43-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4, 244 pounds with record-setting vertical leap (40.5 inches) and broad jump (10 feet, 9 inches) marks.
“I don’t think it’ll happen but would not be shocked if Richardson went No. 1,” he said.
He now has the second-best betting odds to be the first pick in the draft after Saturday's workout, which included a throwing session.
“Richardson is a freak,” a scout put it succinctly.
He's also a bit of a project after starting just one season for the Gators and completing 53 percent of his passes for 2,553 yards with 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions while adding 97 carries for 713 yards with nine more touchdowns on the ground.
Richardson had the highest ADOT at 11.5 yards, the lowest adjusted completion percentage at 64.1 and both the second-lowest big-time throw rate and turnover-worthy play rate.
He was impressive on deep throws, going 26-of-64 for 1,000 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions. He had the second-lowest PFF passing grade under pressure.
Richardson has a pretty low floor based on his athleticism. The hope is that he'd be able to make major strides as a passer with better coaching and talent around him.
4. Will Levis, Kentucky
Levis did receive one first-place vote but also finished with more than half of the last-place votes after completing 65 percent of his passes for 2,416 yards with 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 2022. He rushed for 119 yards and two touchdowns on 45 carries.
"I’ve got Levis as the clear No. 4 of that group," an analystics executive said.
Levis led the top four QBs with a 52.4 completion percentage under pressure as he stayed poised with just four turnover-worthy plays. He had the lowest deep passing grade while throwing for 541 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions and a 41.0-percent mark over 20 yards.
He was last in big-time throw rate and tied for last in turnover-worthy play rate. His 8.6 average depth of target was also last.
Still, the scout who ranked him first said, "he's the only one I'd take without any consideration of scheme."
The Kentucky product was more productive and efficient in 2021. He didn't run at the combine but did throw and impressed with a 34-inch vertical leap and 10-feet, 4-inch broad jump.
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