4 trades the Patriots could pull off before the deadline
With the NFL trade deadline less than two weeks away, the question has to be raised, should the Patriots be buyers or sellers at 1-5? Traditionally, almost all 1-5 teams are 'sellers' at the trade deadline, offloading players of value or players in need of an extension for draft capital to prepare for a rebuild. […]
With the NFL trade deadline less than two weeks away, the question has to be raised, should the Patriots be buyers or sellers at 1-5?
Traditionally, almost all 1-5 teams are 'sellers' at the trade deadline, offloading players of value or players in need of an extension for draft capital to prepare for a rebuild. However, the Patriots aren't a typical 1-5 team.
Bill Belichick, at 71 years old, is operating on borrowed time as the team's head coach and general manager. Trading away assets to prepare for a rebuild is a less viable option for him than it is for other teams, as he's in a race against the clock. On the other hand, only three 1-5 teams in NFL history have made the playoffs, so it's safe to say the odds suggest the season is already lost. That puts Belichick at a crossroads.
Does he sell off pieces and "embrace the tank," or does he try to squeeze out as many wins as possible by adding other players? In either case, I'm going to list two "sell" candidates and two "buy" candidates.
Sell Candidates
Josh Uche, Edge.
This is the obvious choice and a player I mildly expect to be moved. Furthermore, a new report seems to hint at the possibility that Uche's time in New England could be coming to an end. According to Fox Sport's Henry McKenna, the Patriots have had "no talks" regarding a contract extension with Uche. He would be second fiddle to the edge defenders who are potentially available, with rumors of Carolina Panthers Brian Burns being a trade candidate. Uche has been predominantly a third-down pass-rushing presence for the Patriots.
He hasn't developed into the three-down, dominant pass rusher that some people expected following last season's end-of-season stretch. Uche finished the 2022 season with 12 sacks and 56 pressures in just 285 pass rushing snaps. He finished fourth in pass-rush win-rate and second in pressure rate, per PFF.
There is a steep drop-off in Uche's performance when Judon is not on the field. He got off to a hot start in 2023, recording 13 pressures in three games, but his hot streak came to a screeching halt. In the three games since week three, Uche has recorded just four pressures. Uche should be seen as a complementary pass rusher, best suited for a defensive line with another star lined up opposite him. Uche should be viewed as a luxury for a complete team but hardly a necessity for a team facing a rebuild. Given the Patriots' poor roster construction, they may not be in a position to hand out a contract to a one-dimensional player, even if that dimension has value.
- Landing Spots: Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, Detroit Lions and Las Vegas Raiders.
- High-End Compensation: 2024 Third Round Pick
- Low-End Compensation: 2024 Fifth Round Pick
Kyle Dugger, Safety.
If the Patriots do wave the white flag, Dugger is a name that could be on the radar of other teams. The fourth-year player out of DII Lenoir-Rhyne has quickly climbed the ranks and developed into one of the better strong safeties in the NFL.
His best performance is likely ahead of him, given the adjustment to NFL speed during the past few years. At 27 years old, he is on the older side for a player on an expiring rookie contract. Currently, he is PFF's 12th-highest-graded safety out of 31 qualifying players (minimum 350 snaps). In 2022, he finished as PFF's 7th-highest-graded safety out of 58 qualifying players (minimum 750 snaps).
This trade would sting, as the team would be losing one of its better players. However, if they're committing to a rebuild and want the extra draft capital, he is one of their most tradeable pieces. Rebuilds can take several years, and the strong safety position is one of the easier positions to replace, making him a bit expendable.
- Landing Spots: Dallas Cowboys, Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Rams, Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles.
- High-End Compensation: 2024 Second Round Pick
- Low-End Compensation: 2024 Third Round Pick
The list of sell candidates is short. Most 1-5 teams are 1-5 for a reason. The team is devoid of high-end talent and most of the other guys aren't going to garner more than a late day three pick.
Buy Candidates
Garett Bolles, Offensive Tackle.
Rarely, if ever, are good to very good tackles available. This might be one of those rare occasions. The Broncos are 1-5 and have invested a significant amount of money and draft picks in quarterback Russell Wilson and head coach Sean Payton. Trading Bolles would provide them with much-needed flexibility. He has one year remaining on his deal past this season and is set to become a free agent in 2025.
From a financial standpoint, trading Bolles would save the Broncos approximately $16,000,000 in 2024. Excluding the remaining amount of his 2023 contract, the team acquiring him would be on the hook for $16,000,000 for 2024. However, you should assume that if your team makes this trade, they have intentions of extending him and possibly lowering that cap hit.
As a player, Bolles is one of the better tackles in the NFL. Among all tackles with at least 350 snaps, Garett Bolles is ranked 9th out of 35 qualifying candidates, according to PFF. More specifically, Bolles is one of the best pass-blocking tackles in the NFL. He is currently the fourth-highest-graded tackle out of 35 qualifying candidates with a minimum of 350 snaps, according to PFF. The biggest concern for Bolles is his age. He was 25 years old as a rookie and is currently 31 years old.
The good news is that tackles routinely play at a high level into their mid-to-late 30s. Whether this benefits Mac Jones or the next guy, the Patriots need to upgrade the offensive line to prevent continuing the current disaster. It allows Trent Brown to move back to right tackle, where he actually has more experience than left tackle.
- High-End Compensation: 2024 Second Round Pick
- Low-End Compensation: 2024 Third Round Pick
Jerry Jeudy, Wide Receiver.
This move has multiple layers to it. Stop and read before making a judgment on this suggestion, whether you're a Jeudy-believer or a Jeudy-doubter.
Jeudy may not be the transcendent talent that the Broncos expected when they drafted him 15th overall, but there is a real argument to be made that his development has been stymied by his circumstances. That phrase has been used all too often around New England, and it might have some of you reading this rolling your eyes. Jeudy still possesses all the characteristics that teams fell in love with in the 2020 NFL draft. He is quick and agile. However, his quick-twitch ability and deceptive speed haven't entirely translated into on-field explosiveness. He has a tendency to overdo routes, and his ad-libbing, which resulted in college highlights, hasn't found the same success in the NFL.
That being said, the tools are there. There are reps where you can see the vision the Broncos had taking him in the first round. You can see the physical abilities and lateral agility, and then other times when you scratch your head at his plan. It is going to come down to the asking price, but to me, this feels like a chance to "get right" on the Jakobi Meyers decision (letting him walk in free agency) that has blown up in their faces. He is on a cost-controlled contract and signed through 2025. If the Patriots add him with the intention of adding another receiver to the fold, I like this move. If the Patriots make this addition and treat it like they traded for All-Pro receiver Justin Jefferson, I hate that plan.
There is a lot of "good" on Jeudy's tape, and that shouldn't be overlooked just because he isn't the alpha the team desperately needs. At a minimum, I view him as an upgrade over the current options, and his physical tools alone raise the ceiling of the receiver room. There are other question marks, like the bizarre Steve Smith situation, but overall, he is a high-upside player with untapped potential that elevates the room immediately and adds youthful talent to the roster.
Like I said about Bolles, whether that is for Mac Jones or the next guy, they need to add talent to this roster and cannot climb out of this hole in one offseason. There have been too many poor managerial decisions to conquer in such a short time, but deals like this are the complimentary moves they should be making to build toward the bigger picture, which is a competent offense.
- High-End Compensation: 2024 Third Round Pick
- Low-End Compensation: 2024 Fifth Round Pick
At the end of the day, the obvious decision for the Patriots should be to sell pieces of value to acquire draft capital for the future. They don't have the high-end talent to compete with even an average NFL team, and they are on a path to a top three draft pick. It would be in the best interest of the franchise to press the reset button. Only time will tell the approach they decide to take, and realistically, they probably won't do much at the trade deadline. However, these are moves that I feel are within the realm of reasonability and have some value, whether it's as buyers or sellers.