New England Patriots: Has Running Back Leonard Fournette Regressed?
The New England Patriots met with two veteran running backs on Wednesday, which seems to validate the widely held belief that they are seeking to bolster their running back rotation. The two players they brought in for discussions were Darrell Henderson, previously with the Los Angeles Rams, and Leonard Fournette, formerly with the Tampa Bay […]
The New England Patriots met with two veteran running backs on Wednesday, which seems to validate the widely held belief that they are seeking to bolster their running back rotation. The two players they brought in for discussions were Darrell Henderson, previously with the Los Angeles Rams, and Leonard Fournette, formerly with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The teams interest in free agent running backs suggest their may be concerns surrounding the depth and experience of the unit.
Fournette has been long tied to New England, with rumors the team has liked him dating back several years. Prior to rejoining the Buccaneers in 2021, the Patriots reported to be in the mix of teams interested in signing him.
In March, the Buccaneers released Fournette after a disappointing season. Third-year running back Rachaad White took over as the starting player midway through the 2022 season. He did miss week 12 due to injury but lost his starting position primarily because of his performance.
Undoubtedly, Fournette's 2022 season was disappointing. Among the 32 eligible running backs with at least 175 rushing attempts, he ranked last in rushing grade according to PFF. Beyond just grades, other analytics also support this notion. Among the same group of 32 running backs with 175 rushing snaps, Fournette was at the very bottom in terms of "breakaway percentage" finishing 32nd/32.
Breakaway percentage is a crucial metric when evaluating the explosiveness of running backs. Breakaway percentage measures how much a defense needs to worry about the running back because of his ability to break a big play. The percentage is calculated by taking the yards gained on runs over 15 yards and dividing it by the player's total rushing yards. This metric helps identify the running backs who can consistently break free for significant gains. It really highlights explosiveness and ability to maximizing rushing attempts. For Fournette to rank dead last among the 32 eligible running backs in this category further suggests he has physically regressed.
One of Fournette's redeeming factors has been his physical play style, which is complemented by his rare size for a running back at 6'0" and 240lbs, putting him in the 97th percentile in the NFL in terms of weight amongst running backs. However, despite his imposing size, there has been a noticeable drop in his willingness to engage in contact and his success at the contact point. Among the 32 eligible running backs with at least 175 rushing attempts, Fournette ranked last(32nd/32) in Yards After Contact, indicating that he struggled to gain yardage when he needed to rely on his powerful running style.
Fournette's down-to-down rushing efficiency was amongst the worst in the league too. Of the 32 eligible running backs with at least 175 rushing attempts, Fournette ranked dead last(32nd/32) in Yards Per Carry. While the advanced analytics may not be promising for Fournette, the poor performance of his supporting cast should also be taken into account when evaluating his 2022 season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line finished as the eighth worst run-blocking unit in the league.
Fournette has always been an above-average receiving back, and he showed that in 2022 with 529 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. Although he has value as a pass catcher, he is a liability in another area of the pass game. Since entering the league in 2017, Fournette has routinely ranked among the worst pass-blocking running backs in the league.
If New England wants to add another veteran to the roster to ease the load on Rhamondre Stevenson, they should consider exploring other options. I am not sure Fournette adds enough value to this roster to warrant signing him, and truthfully, I wouldn't be shocked if he struggled to make the team. Even Ezekiel Elliott, who has struggled with his own physical regression, seems to have more "gas in the tank" than Fournette. Additionally, there are higher-end free-agent options available, such as Dalvin Cook, who might be willing to accept a reduced role and serve as a rotational piece in the offense.
Featured image via Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
