Jaxson Dart has officially been given the keys to the franchise. Today, it was announced that the New York Giants’ rookie quarterback will be starting over Russell Wilson in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Giants fans are ecstatic about getting to see their possible future star. However, one has to wonder what is realistic to expect from the rookie, given the current state of the team. Let’s evaluate the best-case and worst-case scenarios for Dart.

Best case for Jaxson Dart

The most obvious best-case scenario for Dart this season is if he finishes as a finalist for Offensive Rookie of the Year or wins it outright. Considering the 2025 NFL Draft was defensively loaded, there’s less competition than in most years. Additionally, because the award tends to lean in favor of quarterbacks, the only other rookie QB he’d be in contention with is Tennessee’s Cam Ward.

With far better offensive weapons to work with than Ward, we could see Dart average more passing yards and touchdowns per game. What works against him is the brutal schedule the Giants have coming up.

It’s improbable that the Giants will reach the playoffs with Dart running the show, given the current state of the roster and the path ahead. However, Dart could mirror past winners’ stats to make a case for OROY.

The last five quarterbacks to win the award were Jayden Daniels in 2024, CJ Stroud in 2023, Justin Herbert in 2020, Kyler Murray in 2019, and Dak Prescott in 2016. Herbert and Murray did not lead their teams to the playoffs during the seasons they won the award.

The average stats for the five quarterbacks were over 246 passing yards per game, 24 passing touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Therefore, if Dart were able to average similar stats through the remaining 14 games, he should at least be in the conversation.

Worst case

While Giants fans are excited to see Dart, we must acknowledge that there is a world in which he struggles. Eight of the Giants’ remaining opponents currently have a winning record. They also face three teams that are currently undefeated. Because we’re only three games into the season, that doesn’t even truly do justice to the difficult matchups they have remaining.

If Dart were to struggle, it would likely be driven by issues with evaluating coverages and decisiveness. Dart’s decision-making was tremendous in the preseason, but his playing time mainly came against backups.

In college, Dart was inconsistent with making correct reads and struggled to transition from his first read to his second. With the defensive coordinators he’s about to face, he’ll likely make mistakes. All rookies make mistakes; it depends on how effectively he limits them.

Another potential factor for problems for Dart will be coaching. Many coaches are apprehensive about letting young quarterbacks play completely freely. Daboll could theoretically limit the playbook to protect Dart from himself, which would be a huge mistake.

Additionally, if Daboll is fired mid-year, it could create a gigantic distraction for him and the offense. If the team were to mail it in after a firing, Dart could be floating in currentless waters.

Finally, the general worst-case scenario is that after 2025 is that he doesn’t look like the future face of the franchise. If it doesn’t feel he’s able to take command of the team and boost the offense, it will complicate how the Giants operate this offseason.

Hopefully, that doesn’t come to fruition and Dart performs well. Everyone around New York is itching to have consistency at quarterback and to feel there is a path to success.

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The New York Giants are finally handing the keys of the franchise to rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart.

Joe DeLeone