Not every game on the NFL schedule is created equal. So, let’s dive into the Jets schedule and tier the games in five categories.

Must win: These are games that shouldn’t be in doubt. All of these games are at home against opponents whose talent shouldn’t be able to compete with the Jets.

• Week 3: New England Patriots (Sunday, Sep. 24, 1:00pm ET) – It’s finally time to get the Patriots monkey off their back. The Patriots, while well coached, are simply not talented enough to run with this Jets team. Aaron Rodgers should not be fooled by a Belichick defense at this point.

• Week 13: Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, Dec 3, 1:00pm ET) – In a year or two we could be looking at the best team in the NFC South, but not this year. No QB on that team should scare Saleh’s defense.

• Week 14: Houston Texans (Sunday, Dec 10, 1:00pm ET) – Going against his former assistant on the San Francisco 49ers defense, Saleh should remind DeMeco Ryans just how hard it is to win with a rookie QB and not much else.

• Week 16: Washington Commanders (Sunday, Dec 24, 1:00pm ET) – Will the sale of this franchise finally lift the dark cloud that has hovered over it? Maybe. But this one the boys in green should take care of at home late in the season.

Should win: These games are most likely wins for gang green. It is possible for one reason or another that the Jets could trip up and lose one of these, but not more than one unless there is a bigger issue.

• Week 5: @ Denver Broncos (Sunday, Oct 8, 4:25pm ET) – Sean Payton is a great coach and will squeeze every last bit out of Russell Wilson, but a return to elite status isn’t going to happen. 

• Week 8: @ New York Giants (Sunday, Oct 29, 1:00pm ET) – The Giants and head coach Brian Daboll are not going to sneak up on anybody this year. Couple that with the fact that this is as close to home as an away game can be and the Jets will be coming off the BYE, and this should be a ‘w’ for the AFC New York squad.

• Week 10: @ Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday, Nov 11, 8:20pm ET) – Josh McDaniels has shown that he has perpetual coordinator face and isn’t cut out to be a head coach. Bringing in the frail Jimmy G won’t save his reputation. The defense could be one of the worst in the league and McDaniels only having eyes for the offense won’t help. This game will be fun to watch Sauce Gardner vs. Davante Adams.

• Week 12: Miami Dolphins (Friday, Nov 24, 3:00pm ET) – The league’s first ever Black Friday marquee has the Jets getting their division rivals at home. Adding Jalen Ramsay to go along with Xavien Howard give the Dolphins arguably the best secondary in the NFL. A lot of talent and speed on the Dolphins, but with major question marks at QB and the Jets ability to cover should get them the win.

Who the hell knows?: Because of scheduling circumstances, it is impossible to tell about these games.

• Week 17: @ Cleveland Browns (Thursday, Dec 28, 8:15pm ET) – Throw everything out the window on Thursday Night. These games are usually weird as teams have to scramble to prepare. Couple that with the Browns being a true mystery and it’s anyone’s game. Could the Browns be a 10 win team? Sure. Could they be a 5 win team? Sure. 

• Week 18: @ New England Patriots (Time/Date TBD) – Week 18 is all dependent on the seeding scenarios. If the Jets have clinched all the can clinch, they could easily rest their starters or play a safe vanilla game plan. The only x-factor here is the desire to rub Belichick’s face in getting swept by the Jets.

Could win: These are games that are more 50/50. Of the 4 listed below, the Jets need to win half of them in order to be a true force in the AFC.

• Week 1: Buffalo Bills (Monday, Sep. 11, 8:15pm ET) – It’s Josh Allen vs. Aaron Rodgers week 1. Josh Allen is the king of the AFC East QB’s until he is dethroned. Last season the Jets were able to steal a game even with Zack Wilson at QB. The Jets have improved at QB and get the Bills at home in week 1. All eyes will be on this game. 

• Week 2: @ Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, Sep. 17, 4:25pm ET) – Will the real Dak Prescott please stand up? Last year was Dak’s worst season in the pros. Adding help on the outside with Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore on the defense will help, but it will be up to Dak to lead this team. This will be an early season test for the Jets O-Line as Dallas can bring the pass rush.

• Week 9: Los Angeles Chargers (Monday, Nov 5, 8:15pm ET) – Is this finally the year the Chargers live up to the loft expectations that are heaped on them every year. Last season ended in disappointment vs. the Jaguars in the AFC Wild Card game. Chargers have a high-quality passing attack but are poor in the secondary. This one could be a shootout on Monday Night.

• Week 15: @ Miami Dolphins (Sunday, Dec 17, 1:00pm ET) – As stated before, the Dolphins have a lot of talent and speed, but now they get the Jets at home. It’s doubtful the Jets get 2 games vs. Skyler Thompson again.

This is where champions are made: These are the circled games on the calendar. If the Jets want to be Super Bowl champs, these are the games they will use as a benchmark. Winning at least one is a must, but more than the result, the way the games are played will be more important.

• Week 4: Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, Oct 1, 8:20pm ET) – Every team has the Chiefs circled on their schedule but according to The Athletic, Kansas City has the Jets circled on their calendar. This will be the first ever matchup featuring Rodgers vs. Mahomes. The Chiefs are the Super Bowl champs. In order to be the best, the Jets must prove they can beat the best.

• Week 6: Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, Oct 15, 4:25pm ET) – No team dominates in the trenches on both sides of the ball the way the Eagles do. They only added to that strength this offseason stealing Jalen Carter in the first round. This is the type of team that could literally tell the defense where it plans to the run the ball on any given play and teams would still struggle to stop them. They can cover outside the numbers also with great corners.

• Week 11: @ Buffalo Bills (Sunday, Nov 18, 4:25pm ET) – All the reasons stated above as to why the Bills can beat the Jets, only now they must go to Buffalo in mid-November. The Jets will need hold Josh Allen in check and Rodgers will have to show the Jets how to win in the cold. Until proven otherwise, the road to winning the AFC East goes through Buffalo.

Assuming the Jets lose 1 “should win”, 2 “could wins” and 2 “championship” games, that puts their record at 12-5. That should be good enough for at worst the first wild card spot, but likely a shot at the AFC East.