NFL coaching carousel predictions: Mike Vrabel fits and misfits, Ben Johnson gets his money, an unexpected housecleaning headline Black Monday
Black Monday is nearly here: who gets fired, and who gets hired?
The most dangerous time of year for losing coaching staffs is nearly upon us.
After the final Sunday of regular season play, non-playoff teams begin their offseason work. And for around a fifth of the league each year, that means hiring a new head coach.
Which Jobs Will Be Open?
Three openings already exist due to in-season firings, so the Bears, Jets, and Saints won’t have any tough decisions to make before their searches begin.
Two other positions are unanimously expected to come open as soon as Week 18 is over, as the Jaguars will fire Doug Pederson and the Raiders seem poised to fire Antonio Pierce.
After those 5 teams, things get speculatory. The next group of shaky situations consists of the Titans, Colts, Giants, Cowboys, and Patriots. Ultimately, I’m predicting the Colts job is the only one to come open, bringing the season total to 6. It feels like there’s a surprise opening each season, and Indianapolis feels like this year’s entry. More on that, and who they should hire, later in the article.
The Titans job is the safest of this group. Brian Callahan is expected back for a second season, after year one's Will Levis bet failed to pay off.
In Dallas, the only reason anybody is still talking about the possibility of the Cowboys moving on from Mike McCarthy is the fact that his 5-year contract is up. While he’s certainly not perfect, the job McCarthy has done without Dak Prescott down the stretch of the season has impressed Jerry Jones and company. But above all else, Jones isn’t an owner who historically moves on from his coaches quickly. Jason Garrett seemed like a dead man walking for years before finally being shown the door after nearly a decade. Jerry befriends his coaches, and gives them a long leash for better or for worse. I think McCarthy will be back on a new contract.
In New England, first year HC Jerod Mayo has had a lackluster debut. His game management and PR skills have been particularly scrutinized, and are a part of the reason why he’s on the hot seat.
But Bob Kraft and Patriots ownership aren’t the type to make moves that come off as dysfunctional and rash, and I expect they’ll give Mayo another shot. Perhaps the biggest temptation to fire him this quickly is the possibility of bringing home their prodigal son Mike Vrabel to coach his old team. In the end, I don’t think it happens.
Finally, the Giants job feels like a coin flip. Owner John Mara made it clear early in the season, when things were already going poorly, that he did not want to end the continuity he had with HC Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen. Flash forward a couple months, and it’s hard to say whether this pathetic season has been bad enough to change his mind. Word on the NFL streets is that one of Daboll and Schoen, but not both, could get the axe once the season ends. But I’m betting that the Mara family ultimately sticks with continuity and brings them both back.
So that leaves us with 6 jobs to fill: the Bears, Jets, Saints, Jaguars, Raiders, and Colts. Let’s break down who would be best for each job, and who the tea leaves are indicating might land where:
Chicago Bears
Best fit: Joe Brady
Everybody has spent this year talking about Detroit's OC Ben Johnson as the offensive wunderkind of the cycle. And while Johnson deserves the praise he's gotten, I think Buffalo OC Joe Brady deserves far more hype than he's been given.
Brady has Josh Allen at his disposal, which is without question a big help for any coordinator. But Ben Johnson has an incredible OL and group of weapons at his disposal, which isn't brought up as a mark against him. So instead of dismissing Brady's success with Buffalo's offense as a product of his incredible QB, let's point out what he doesn't have: an elite group of weapons. He's had the Bills offense humming for a year and a half anyways, something they were struggling to do in the front-half of 2023 before he was elevated to playcalling duties.
Every stop in Brady's career has been a huge success besides his time with the Panthers during the disastrous Matt Rhule era. His time at LSU was filled with historic offensive output, and now in Buffalo he's dominating teams on a weekly basis. Pairing him with a talent like Caleb Williams is an exciting idea, and one that is more likely to get the best out of him than a defensive coach like Matt Eberflus ever was.
Prediction: Kliff Kingsbury
Ultimately, Chicago pairs Caleb with his college offensive coordinator from USC: Kliff Kingsbury. He's done a fantastic job in year 1 with Jayden Daniels in Washington, and he has head coaching experience.
This is likely to be met with mixed emotions by Bears faithful, as they seem to have all of their hopeful eggs in the Ben Johnson basket. Reporting this week has hinted at Johnson being less and less likely to be their new hire, and on paper, it's really not a perfect fit for Johnson who is historically picky.
Does Johnson actually want to leave Detroit, a team he has a deep love for, to coach against his mentor Dan Campbell in the same division? I see a connection with another team for him that makes far more sense.
So Chicago lands Kingsbury, who they'll lean on to be an offensive sparkplug as well as a "leader of men" type. They're looking for someone who can unlock their franchise QB and coach him hard, something Bears decision makers believe he badly needs going forward.
New York Jets
Best fit: Mike Vrabel
This is going to be a common theme in this article: Mike Vrabel is the ideal candidate for teams that are listless. If you're a franchise that's adrift at sea, with no culture or identity, Vrabel is the domineering floor-raiser you need. And no team is a more faceless wasteland than the New York Jets right now.
To their credit, the Jets already interviewed Vrabel this week, and it reportedly went very well.
Cynically, my gut tells me Vrabel isn't actually all that interested in this job. I think his primary motive in messaging the success of this interview is to make the Patriots, a team who inducted him into their Hall of Fame last season and despises the Jets as much as anyone, a little bit jealous. Perhaps seeing him chumming it up with the loser Jets could be enough to make the Kraft family pull the trigger on Jerod Mayo, in order to try to court one of their favorite sons. Ultimately, I don't think the Patriots make the emotional move and I don't thing Vrabel lands with New England or New York. But it's an emotional game that I really do think is being played to some extent.
Prediction: Rex Ryan
Would I bet real money on a Rex Ryan reunion for the Jets? Absolutely not. Making him my prediction in this article is essentially a "who knows!" placeholder. Who ends up coaching the Gang Green in 2025 is the biggest mystery to me on this list. The primary reason being, I'm pretty sure they aren't any of the top candidates' first choice.
This feels like a "leftovers" landing spot. The Jets and the Saints are the least desirable jobs on this list, and if I had to pick the one I like the least, it's probably New York. That's not to say there are no reasons to like this job: there is real talent on both sides of the ball. The cupboard is not bare. They're a QB away from having a team that you can work with, though perhaps not contend with immediately.
But the toxic, dysfunctional reputation of the franchise and its' ownership is strong. Woody Johnson (and apparently his son Brick!) are meddling troublemakers. It's simply a poorly run franchise. There's a reason why this team has had zero success to speak of since, would you look at that, Rex Ryan!
The Jets reportedly interviewed Ryan and it went well. Maybe a bizarre reunion is in order, if nothing else than to bring back the man who last had you playing in the postseason.
New Orleans Saints
Best fit: Aaron Glenn
The Saints are far from the most desirable coaching job in the world, but I think one of the more desirable candidates is the right fit for them. Detroit is liable to lose both of their coordinators this offseason, a brain drain that's headlined by Ben Johnson. But DC Aaron Glenn has gotten head coaching interviews in recent cycles just like his offensive counterpart, and the word on him in NFL circles is that he is a fantastic head coach candidate who will land a job eventually.
Glenn is a strong "leader of men" type who could get the most out of the self-inflicted limitations down in New Orleans. The organization itself is held in high regard as a well run, stable franchise. But the tilted behavior of their front office for years now has them kicking so many financial cans down the road, it's impossible to keep track. The Saints are apparently on a mission to singlehandedly prove people who preach "the salary cap isn't real" wrong in as big a way as possible.
Their talent is dwindling, aging, expensive, and they regularly double-down instead of taking their medicine anyways. It's a mind-boggling mess that a strong coach who can maximize a roster will have to navigate. Glenn can be that man.
Prediction: Aaron Glenn
The Saints are the first team I believe will make the perfect decision for them. The biggest reason why I think Glenn could land in New Orleans despite having other teams courting him is his connection to the team through Dan Campbell. His current employer has a longstanding relationship and understanding of what the Saints franchise is all about. I wouldn't be surprised if Campbell didn't help facilitate that marriage in some form or fashion. It stands to reason he would, at the very least, give his recommendation to both parties involved.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Best fit: Ben Johnson
I don't see a better landing spot for Ben Johnson in 2025 than the Jacksonville Jaguars. It's a team far removed from the NFC North, where he would be if he went to Chicago. It's a team with an established franchise QB who, believe it or not, is thought much more highly of in league circles than he is by fans. And whatever you think of Trevor Lawrence, he's exactly the kind of QB that I think Ben Johnson would look at and see fitting perfectly into the offense he's been running so successfully with Jared Goff.
It's a team that's likely to have a GM opening this season too (more on that in a moment). It's a team that will be willing to pay him extremely handsomely, which is important considering his very cushy OC job making something in the ballpark of $4,000,000 a year in Detroit. And, believe it or not once more, people in league circles really like owner Shad Khan. He provides his team with unlimited resources and is one of the more hands-off, media shy owners in the NFL. Whether he has any idea what he's doing is one thing, but the situation he sets his GM and Head Coach up with is very desirable.
Prediction: Ben Johnson
If I had to bet on being right about one of these predictions, it's this one. I feel strongly about Ben Johnson being a Jacksonville Jaguar in 2025. Combine the fit on paper with the whispers that have turned into shouts as we near the offseason, and it feels inevitable.
Take a listen to these comments from local Jacksonville radio. Former Jaguars QB Mark Brunell is now the QB coach in Detroit, so he works daily with Ben Johnson. It's being reported that according to Brunell, Johnson wants the Jacksonville job. Full stop, point blank. He likes the idea of coaching Trevor Lawrence, and Brunell would almost certainly come with him.
Meanwhile, it's sounding more and more like GM Trent Baalke is likely to be fired along with Doug Pederson in order to make the Jaguars a more attractive landing spot for top candidates.
I think Johnson is headed to Jacksonville as soon as the Lions season is over, and he's bringing a GM of his choice with him.
Las Vegas Raiders
Best fit: Mike Vrabel
The Raiders are another team that could really use a Mike Vrabel in their life.
Leadership, clear direction, and culture. This is a franchise lacking all three of those things. And Vrabel, for all of his foibles, can offer them that. He can be for Vegas what he was for the Titans: somebody to bring them along as a serious franchise. Somebody to take them to the next level. All the way to the top may be a little bit of a lofty goal, especially in a division with Patrick Mahomes amongst other ascending teams, but taking a clear step forward organizationally is very doable. and Vrabel can do that.
Prediction: Mike Vrabel
The Raiders are another team I expect to make the perfect decision for them. The Vrabel connection here is easy: Ton Brady. Vrabel and Brady have a long history as teammates and friends. With Brady expected to be the most influential voice amongst the Raiders ownership group in this coaching search, Vrabel having this job, should he want it, wouldn't be shocking.
ESPN's Dan Orlovsky mentioned recently on Pat McAfee's show that he believes Vrabel is already "spoken for". What could that mean? A pre-arranged understanding with Brady and the rest of Vegas ownership would make a ton of sense.
Indianapolis Colts
Best fit: Mike Vrabel
The Colts are the third team on this list who could really use a Mike Vrabel on their payroll.
This franchise sounds like a total mess. Their actions this season read like a team that's in disarray. From changing practically nothing about their roster last offseason expecting the re-insertion of Anthony Richardson to push them over the top; to benching him midseason amidst strange and embarrassing circumstances; to bringing him back a just a few weeks later: things have been ugly.
Add on top of that the private dysfunction that has recently bubbled up to the surface thanks to Pat McAfee's strong words on social media and eye-raising reporting from the Athletic, and this is a franchise primed for a reset.
Jim Irsay choosing to move on from at least one of Head Coach Shane Steichen or GM Chris Ballard seems likely at this point, but will it be both? Reading the tea leaves from insiders, it sounds like Steichen might survive this ugly season.
But every year it seems we have one surprise housecleaning, and I'm taking the Colts as my pick this year. Whether they do it or not, I feel strongly that they should.
The reason why Mike Vrabel is the ideal fit here is simply because this team needs an alpha adult in the room. They need somebody to tighten up this ship and get them back to "stable franchise" status (no pun intended). Vrabel could do that.
Prediction: Brian Flores
While I don't see a world in which Mike Vrabel ends up in Indianapolis, I'm going to predict they get somebody who offers some similar services: Brian Flores.
Flores has spent the year as the Vikings Defensive Coordinator, and he's been perhaps the most talked-about DC of the season. The coaching job he's done with that unit, the way he has terrorized QBs all season long and demonstrated his ability to adapt to new circumstances, has been seriously impressive.
There was a lot wrong with the job Flores did in Miami during his first stint as a head coach. It seems like he has learned a lot since then, and everybody with proximity to him has said that he's somebody who should be given another crack at it.
Something Flores didn't lack in Miami was discipline and accountability in the way he managed his players. That's something the Colts could really use right now. He's also a defensive mastermind, and would go a very long way in replacing current Colts DC Gus Bradley calling that side of the ball. Pair a talented OC with Flores in Indy, and the Colts could be back on track as a competent franchise in a hurry.
