Four weeks to go! December football is an exciting month, bringing one of my favorite things about the sport: playoff scenarios. I’m not sure why, but all the possibilities and percentages intrigue me, even if they can be a bit head-spinning as well.

This week, we discuss teams who can lock up playoff berths in Week 15, plus teams that are looking to earn No. 1 seeds. Then we talk Sam Darnold’s future with the Vikings and Bill Belichick signing with a college team, and round things out with bets, injuries and more.

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—Wes Roesch, Newsletter Editor at A to Z Sports

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Playoff scenarios for Week 15: Which teams can clinch? PLUS: No. 1 seed possibilities

We’re finally in playoff clinching season with just four weeks to go. Four teams have clinched playoff spots so far: the Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

Heading into Week 15, three teams can clinch playoff berths, while two teams can clinch their respective divisions. There are also a few teams who are looking ahead, working toward capturing the coveted No. 1 seed in their respective conferences. Let’s take a look at these squads and their scenarios.

Detroit Lions (12-1)

The Lions already have a playoff spot captured, so now they are trying their best to hang on to the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The best way to do that is win out, especially with the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles (both 11-2) breathing down their neck.

The good news is a loss wouldn’t be the end of the world, yet — the Lions own a tiebreaker over the Vikings due to a Week 7 win over them, and have a tiebreaker over Philly due to a better conference record (8-1 vs. 7-2). The caveat? The Lions have another game vs. the Vikings in Week 18, and they also have three games total left against the NFC. So if the Lions drop another game or two, they might need to rely on some losses by those other two teams to say in the top spot.

Green Bay Packers (9-4)

This one is almost impossible. The Packers clinch a playoff berth in Week 15 with these outcomes:

• Win vs. Seattle Seahawks, AND…
• Atlanta Falcons loss/tie vs. Las Vegas Raiders, AND…
• Tie between Los Angeles Rams-San Francisco 49ers

Houston Texans (8-5)

This one is doable. The Texans clinch the AFC South, and therefore a playoff berth, with these outcomes:

• Win vs. Miami Dolphins, AND…
• Indianapolis Colts loss vs. Denver Broncos

Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)

The Chiefs have clinched the AFC West along with a playoff spot. They also boast a two-game lead in the AFC over the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers. There’s a scenario in which they could clinch the No. 1 seed by Christmas Day (Week 17). Charles Goldman breaks it down:

Kansas City clinches the AFC No. 1 seed by winning two out of their last four games, but only so long as the Bills and Steelers both lose one of their remaining four games. It's not out of the realm of possibility for Kansas City to win their next two [vs. Cleveland Browns and Texans]. It's also not out of the realm of possibility for the Bills [vs. Lions] and Steelers [vs. Eagles] to have another loss in the win-loss column as early as Week 15's conclusion.

Minnesota Vikings (11-2)

The Vikings pretty much have a playoff spot in the bag, but for fun here are the Week 15 outcomes for them to clinch:

• Win/tie vs. Chicago Bears, OR…
• Rams loss/tie vs. 49ers, OR…
• Seahawks loss/tie vs. Packers

The more important question for Minnesota is whether it’ll take the No. 1 seed. Tyler Forness breaks it down here, but the gist is that the Vikings’ easiest path to the top seed is by winning out plus two Lions losses. That last part is tricky, but the Lions have a tough schedule ahead, and the Vikings could be that second loss for the Lions in Week 18.

Philadelphia Eagles (11-2)

The Eagles already have a playoff spot, but they could clinch the NFC East this weekend. Here’s how:

• Win vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, AND…
• Washington Commanders loss/tie vs. New Orleans Saints, OR…
• Tie vs. Steelers + Commanders loss vs. Saints

The Eagles will also be trying for that No. 1 seed in the NFC in the coming weeks. They’re one game behind the Lions and are one game worse with their conference record, so they’ll need Detroit to drop a game to an NFC squad soon. The Lions’ remaining opponents are the Buffalo Bills, Bears, 49ers and Vikings.

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)

Here’s how the Steelers can clinch a playoff spot this weekend:

• Win/tie vs. Eagles, OR…
• Dolphins loss/tie vs. Texans + Colts loss/tie vs. Broncos

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Sam Darnold’s future: A good problem to have for Vikings

Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold has played like an MVP candidate this season. He’s currently top six in passing yards (3,299) and top three in touchdown passes (28), and has led Minnesota to a much better season than basically everyone predicted.

While the playoffs are on the horizon, so is figuring out the future of the Vikings’ QB position. Does the team stick with Darnold, who is set to become a free agent next year, or go with J.J. McCarthy, who has spent his rookie season on the sidelines with an injury?

Tyler Forness breaks down the possibilities:

The franchise tag is an interesting idea for the Vikings. Would they be willing to make the move to secure Darnold staying one more year? Let's look at what it would take.

The Vikings currently have a projected $76.4 million in salary cap space for the 2025 season, which is more than plenty to absorb a one-year deal. Over The Cap is projecting the franchise tag number to be $41,304,000. It would be easily absorbed and potentially give McCarthy another year to learn behind Darnold before taking over the franchise.

This is the biggest question when it comes to the franchise tag. They have McCarthy waiting in the wings and it would set that plan back a year. It would also be very anti-player, which is against what the Vikings' culture has become. Sure, Darnold would end up getting nearly $42 million but it could hurt his market for a long-term deal significantly.

Why would the Vikings end up franchise tagging Darnold? Simple: to trade him.

Whatever the Vikings end up doing, Forness noted that this is a unique QB problem that the NFL hasn’t seen for over 20 years:

The Vikings’ QB situation is eerily similar to the 2004 Chargers … What did the Chargers end up doing? They franchise tagged Drew Brees and kept him for the 2005 season. Remember, the Chargers selected Eli Manning first overall in the 2004 NFL Draft but traded him to the New York Giants for the fourth overall pick in Philip Rivers.

At the time, Brees was just viewed as a bridge guy, as his first three years hadn't shown he could be a franchise guy to that point. His performance in 2004 earned him a Pro Bowl nomination and he was the starter going into the 2005 season.

Ultimately, Brees tearing his shoulder at the end of the 2005 season made the decision for the Chargers, but it was really hard for them to make a difficult decision when you look at how each player's career turned out, as both are sure to be inducted in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Are the Vikings in that same position? Well, let's not get ahead of ourselves. Neither Darnold nor McCarthy is projected to be on the path to being enshrined in Canton, Ohio at this point. Now, could they be? The next 15 years will answer that question.

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Bill Belichick heads to college, signs with North Carolina

Um, what?! Yep, that’s correct: legendary NFL coach Bill Belichick has agreed to become the head coach for the North Carolina Tar Heels, signing a five-year deal. Sophie Weller and Travis May break down what this means for UNC and college football:

So how would the greatest NFL head coach of all-time approach this new coaching venture? Many are skeptical as he reportedly likes to have so much control over the organization, but Bill laid things out rather clearly:

“If I was in a college program, the college program would be a pipeline to the NFL for the players that had the ability to play in the NFL,” Belichick said. “It would be a professional program — training, nutrition, scheme, coaching techniques — that would transfer to the NFL. It would be an NFL program at a college level and an education that would get the players ready for their career after football, whether that was the end of their college career or at the end of their pro career. But it would be geared toward developing the player, time management, discipline, structure and all that.”

Revenue sharing, proper NIL, plus a migration to a more professional model via the best coaches in the world like Bill Belichick might help "fix" the college football we all have grown to love. Belichick (among many other top coaches and programs) could help standardize compensation and organization to fairly treat players, staff members, fans, and everyone involved. If this hire works it could mark a new beginning for the sport entirely.

Belichick has wasted no time recruiting for his program, adding former NFL general manager Michael Lombardi to be the UNC football program's GM.

Belichick’s move to college is huge and unprecedented, and time will tell whether it succeeds. Jon Helmkamp and Ian Valentino break down the reasons why Belichick's next chapter could be successful or crash and burn:

Why Bill Belichick will be successful at UNC

Success for Belichick at North Carolina won't include national titles, but that hasn't been the bar for the Tar Heels ever, anyways. But can he make them a team that wins nine or 10 games a year and is competitive in a rich recruiting area? I think so.

I think about Deion Sanders and how his style draws in a specific style of player, and Belichick is the same. He'll bring toughness and a Big Ten-type of athlete to the ACC, which bodes well for how they'll play against less physical competition. His name and pedigree, plus NIL money, will be enough to bring in some proven quarterbacks, relieving the pressure off Belichick's shoulders to hit the recruiting grind for developmental talent. —Ian Valentino

Why Bill Belichick won't be successful at UNC

His football IQ is unquestioned. He's a brilliant mind. Where I struggle to see success is a college program thriving without fire and enthusiasm and fun. The Patriots were never that under Belichick —they were a "do your job for the team" mentality where personality was squashed and the joy of the game was absent. I struggle to see a world where that works with today's college football players that want to play passionate football and express themselves.

Belichick will be the complete antithesis of Deion Sanders, both in style and in recruiting. But in a college football landscape where the transfer portal makes it easy for players to leave, there will be plenty that choose to do so under Belichick's style. —Jon Helmkamp

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