There's a stat that strongly suggests Liberty quarterback Malik Willis will be a bust in the NFL

Over the last few weeks, Liberty quarterback Malik Willis has emerged as the potential top quarterback prospect in the 2022 NFL Draft. Willis is a bit raw, but he has the best arm in the draft. And his improvisation skills suggest he could eventually be a star in the NFL. The overall scouting report on […]

Zach Ragan Tennessee Volunteers News Writer
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Over the last few weeks, Liberty quarterback Malik Willis has emerged as the potential top quarterback prospect in the 2022 NFL Draft.

Willis is a bit raw, but he has the best arm in the draft. And his improvisation skills suggest he could eventually be a star in the NFL.

The overall scouting report on Willis, however, has plenty of negatives.

And there's one stat, in particular, that strongly suggests Willis could be a bust in the NFL.

Willis has the lowest QBR under pressure (2.5) of the top seven quarterbacks in the draft (the FBS average was 11.2).

QBR under pressure is a stat that front offices heavily consider — that's because it's a good indicator of future success.

Willis Steelers
Nov 6, 2021; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Liberty Flames quarterback Malik Willis (7) runs the ball while defended by Mississippi Rebels linebacker Cedric Johnson (33) during the third quarter at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

According to ESPN, over the last three years, just four of the 34 draft-eligible quarterbacks they examined had a QBR under pressure that was below the FCS average (Clayton Thorson, Daniel Jones, Jarrett Stidham, and Nate Stanley).

That's not good company to be in if you're a draft-eligible quarterback (the jury is still out on New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones, but it's not looking good so far for the former Duke standout).

By comparison, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow had a QBR while under pressure in 2019 (his final season at LSU) of 82.6.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes wasn't quite as good during his final season at Texas Tech, but his QBR under pressure (34.9) was still far above the FBS average.

Willis was elite last season at forcing missed tackles when blitzed, but he also took more sacks than any other quarterback in the country. That's very concerning considering that Liberty only played one top 25 team last season (Ole Miss, which had the No. 51 scoring defense in the nation).

If Willis can't consistently evade pressure against lesser competition, how is he going to fare when he's facing NFL defenders?

Making plays under pressure is a necessity for NFL quarterbacks. Even a quarterback that plays behind a good offensive line will face a considerable amount of pressure over the course of an NFL season.

Willis has a lot of upside. His arm strength is attractive to NFL teams. And so is his ability to make off-schedule throws. But if he can't perform under pressure, he's not going to find much success in the NFL.

There have been a few breakthrough quarterbacks that didn't have good under pressure QBRs in college — Russell Wilson is an example of one — but those are few and far between. For the most, the QBR under pressure stat is a good predictor of future NFL success for a quarterback.

Featured image via Robert McDuffie-USA TODAY Sports