When the Pittsburgh Steelers drafted Najee Harris in round one of the 2021 NFL Draft, they hoped to find their next franchise back. 

And after a stellar rookie season, they looked to have hit a home run, evident by Harris' Pro Bowl selection. 

But last year there was obvious regression from Harris. And if the eye test wasn't enough, I have some figures to prove it. 

To be clear, Harris had a good season when you consider all the circumstances. With an early season injury, a poor unit in front if him, and an unstable situation at quarterback before the bye week, Harris still amassed over 1000 yards on the ground and matched his rookie year in rushing touchdowns with seven. 

Some may call those excuses, but I call them limiting factors. Running backs need rhythm and continuity, something injuries and underwhelming offensive lines don't help. 

Here's the problem though; when you take a peek behind the curtain and compare Najee's advanced metrics to Steelers backup RB Jaylen Warren's, the discrepancy is mind-boggling:

These figures were courtesy of PFF's Ian Hartitz, and they display vast differences in yards per carry (YPC), PFF grades, and yards per reception (YPR). 

Once again, this isn't an indictment on Harris, rather it shows that despite the hodgepodge that was the Steelers' offense in 2022, there was "meat left on the bone" if you will.

Trevor Sikkema of PFF also laid this out in his running back rankings, with Harris at a staggering 19th overall:

Harris has been solid throughout his NFL career, said Sikkema. He’s rushed for more than 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons but did so with a sub-4.0 yards-per-carry average. So far, he’s been a product of his volume more than efficiency. We’ll see if he can take that next step in 2023.

Now, as John Sheeran of A to Z Sports pointed out, it's awful presumptuous to think there at 18 backs in the NFL would have produced a better two-year stretch than Harris has to start his career in Pittsburgh:

Harris' production may be derived from consistent opportunity, but creating the yards he's made behind subpar offensive line play is worth contextualizing, said Sheeran. Pittsburgh's offensive line struggled to open running lanes for Harris over the past two years, and changes have been made up front to remedy that.

And while I agree with Sheeran, the numbers can't be ignored, and when you compare Harris to his contemporaries not only in his own backfield but throughout the league, the result stays the same:

As most of you reading this know, anytime you are tasked with reading an X-Y axis graph, you want your findings to be in the upper right quadrant when analyzing two metrics. 

Unfortunately for Harris, his dot is in the lower left, meaning he has performed sub-par in both expected points added per play (how much of an impact he has on the score of the game) and expected rushing yards which is determined by the size of the hole in front of him. 

Here's the bottom line:

I have laid out all the nuances behind the Najee Harris situation to give everyone a level playing field in their opinion of him. He has produced despite his surroundings, but he has also left something to be desired. 

After this season, the Steelers will need to make a decision on whether or not they pick up Harris' fifth-year option, signaling their opinion on his future with the Steelers. 

So with an offseason full of additions to the offensive line, a draft that added not one, but two road graders from Georgia, and an assumed clean bill of health heading into the season, it's time for Najee Harris to silence the critics and prove he's here to stay in the Pittsburgh backfield. 

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