Pittsburgh Steelers Pro Bowler T.J. Watt continues to lose bragging rights because of useless stat
It's hard to believe, but T.J. Watt continues to be doubted, discounted, and sometimes disrespected by fans, media, and even players (I remember what you said Micah Parsons). And with PFF releasing their latest set of EDGE rankings, you would expect Watt to be battling for the top spot. Except, he wasn't, and the dreaded […]
It's hard to believe, but T.J. Watt continues to be doubted, discounted, and sometimes disrespected by fans, media, and even players (I remember what you said Micah Parsons).
And with PFF releasing their latest set of EDGE rankings, you would expect Watt to be battling for the top spot.
Except, he wasn't, and the dreaded "Pass Rush Win Rate" that cost him his second Defensive Player of the Year was the reason why:
PFF Slights T.J. Watt, Ranks him 4th best EDGE
Watt led the NFL in sacks in 2023 (19) and placed fourth in pass-rush grade (91.7). Watt’s 16.2% pass-rush win rate is what puts him fourth on this list, but he’s still in Tier 1 for his consistent one-on-one success. –PFF
Alright, I've had enough. Look, I get the point of analytics. They allow you to better analyze the game. Instead of looking at regular stats or using 'The eye test' they ensure an objective use of criteria based on nuances and specificities of the position.
But the problem here is the actual definition of pass rush win rate:
Our pass-rush win rate metric tells us how often a pass-rusher is able to beat his block within 2.5 seconds. Likewise, our pass block win rate metric conveys the rate linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer. –ESPN Analytics
Makes sense. The quicker you defeat a block, the greater the likelihood you can force pressures and sacks. Great, understood. But we already know that Watt had more sacks than Bosa, Parsons, and Garrett, all of whom were ranked ahead of him.
Sacks themselves are a whole other argument, though to me, it's one of the biggest plays in football, and should be the ultimate judgment of a pass rusher's top-end talent.
But just for the sake of argument, let's compare T.J. Watt's amount of pressures to Bosa, Parsons, and Garrett.
| Player | 2023 Pressures |
|---|---|
T.J. Watt | 50 |
Myles Garrett | 37 |
Micah Parsons | 43 |
Nick Bosa | 44 |
Pro Football Reference
So let me get this straight, Watt not only sacks the QB the most, but he also pressures, or affects the passer the most, or at least he did in 2023, a year removed from an injury-riddled season, which came after a DPOY season in 2021.
So I'm at a loss for words. Everyone has bias. If you want to say players are better, then say it. But whether it's PFF or media members that vote for DPOY, don't cite Pass Rush Win Rate as your reasoning, because simple research dispels that notion.
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