Steelers vs. Texans expert score predictions: Aaron Rodgers gets his best weapon back when Pittsburgh needs him the most

Here is who the experts are picking to win the playoff game between the Steelers and Texans.

Add as preferred source on Google
Sep 14, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver DK Metcalf (4) and quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) celebrate after combining for a touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks during the second quarter at Acrisure Stadium.
© Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Less than six weeks ago, Pittsburgh Steelers fans looked to be at their wits’ end with Mike Tomlin and this version of the black and gold. Fans were chanting “fire Tomlin” after a historic loss against the Buffalo Bills, and it looked like the wheels might finally be coming off.

After a putrid showing against the Browns and a missed extra point from Chris Boswell against the Ravens, that was all but certain. Then came the missed field goal that saved the Steelers’ season and gave them their first AFC North championship in half a decade. The question now is: Can the Steelers win their first playoff game since 2016? Our panel makes their picks.

Steelers 23, Texans 20

This game can and will go off the rails very fast for the Steelers if their pass protection fails. No team in the league is better at rushing with four than the Texans. That puts an onus on the Steelers’ pass catchers to win their matchups.

Well, that will be easier for everyone on offense with N0.4 back in the mix, as DK Metcalf returns from suspension. As for the Steelers and Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh has never lost a home game on Monday night. Houston, on the other hand, has never won a road playoff game. I think those two things continue on Monday night. – Rob Gregson, A to Z Sports Pittsburgh

Texans 20, Steelers 16

Defense is always trustworthy in January, and it is tough to ignore what DeMeco Ryans has helped build in Houston. There are no liabilities, and the team’s two All-Pros in CB Derek Stingley Jr. and EDGE Will Anderson make it tough for offenses to throw the ball.

This would be an easy pick if DK Metcalf were still suspended, but his return coinciding with Aaron Rodgers starting to feel himself a little bit should make it a tight game throughout. I’ll ride with the better overall defense in a close and likely ugly game. – John Sheeran, A to Z Sports Cincinnati

Texans 23, Steelers 19

This is a fascinating game of streaks and most of those seem to favor the Pittsburgh Steelers entering this matchup. I, frankly, do not care. The Texans have a ferocious pass rush, the ability to match and smother Pittsburgh’s perimeter weapons and I expect they’ll make Aaron Rodgers quite uncomfortable.

I think Houston wins a grind-it-out affair and seizes a road playoff win. – Kyle Crabbs, A to Z Sports Miami

Texans 20, Steelers 10

We’ve already seen multiple road teams pull off the win during this exciting wildcard round. The Texans are favored coming in, but honestly, I was shocked to see they were only favored by three points. The Houston defense has been playing at an all-time level, and even though I don’t trust CJ Stroud and the offense, I don’t see this Steelers offense being able to put up enough points to advance to the divisional round.

Give me the Texans to win and to cover the spread. – Destin Adams, A to Z Sports Indianapolis

Final takeaways

My colleagues are leaning heavily in favor of the Texans, a thought that will be shared by much of the national media and fans. We’ll see if the Steelers can snap the recent trend and get back to the standard that is Steelers’ football.