Predicting the Winners of the 2024 NFL Honors Awards Ceremony
The Lombardi Trophy is the NFL's ultimate piece of hardware, but there are plenty of other respectable awards out there to be had by the players who didn't get a shot at winning a championship (and even the guys who play in the Super Bowl have a shot to win these awards). The league will […]
The Lombardi Trophy is the NFL's ultimate piece of hardware, but there are plenty of other respectable awards out there to be had by the players who didn't get a shot at winning a championship (and even the guys who play in the Super Bowl have a shot to win these awards).
The league will present its NFL Honors selections tonight, so I figured why not go ahead and make a few predictions as to who wins.
I'm going to go off a mix of what I think happens and what I think should happen. The AP voters can easily be wrong in their ultimate selections, so it's worth getting out in front of that if/when it happens.
Let's go ahead and dive in.
Most Valuable Player
Finalists: Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen, Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey
Prediction: Lamar Jackson will win the second MVP award of his career. Remember, this is voted on after the end of the regular season and before the playoffs begin. Jackson and the Ravens, at the time, were the toast of the NFL and considered the best team in the league.
And honestly, they were. And probably still are. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are just different animals during the postseason – and that's not making any excuses for the Ravens. They totally dropped the ball, especially considering how dominant they were at home during the regular season and against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Who should win: Jackson. He was lights-out during the season and was the leader of the NFL's best squad. That's plenty to get the job done.
Defensive Player of the Year
Finalists: Cleveland Browns EDGE Myles Garrett, Dallas Cowboys CB DaRon Bland, Dallas Cowboys LB/EDGE Micah Parsons, Las Vegas Raiders EDGE Maxx Crosby, Pittsburgh Steelers EDGE T.J. Watt
Prediction: T.J. Watt. This is where you put yourself in the minds of the voters. Not only did these same voters vote Watt first-team All-Pro, he led the league in sacks and had more splash plays than any of the other finalists. That stands out, more than anything. Although it's fair to wonder if Garrett's heroics against the Indianapolis Colts is still enough to win him the award.
Who should win: Micah Parsons. Yes, the sacks and splash plays are big for Watt, but when considering Parsons was double-teamed at a league-high 35% rate compared to Watt's 14% and Parsons finished with a league-leading 35% pass rush win rate -which easily eclipsed Watt's rate of 25%- it's clear Parsons is a dominant force that should be respected as such. His total numbers were also good, therefore, the overall product is better, in my opinion.
Offensive Player of the Year
Finalists: Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey
Prediction: Dak Prescott. The Cowboys QB led the NFL in passing touchdowns and QBR (ESPN's metric, not the traditional metric), while guiding the team to a 12-5 record and a division title. He also tied for the league lead in big-time throw rate (6.0%) and tied for the seventh-best adjusted completion percentage (77.6%) while having the third-lowest turnover worthy play rate (2.0%) among 32 qualifying quarterbacks with at least 284 dropbacks in the regular season, per Pro Football Focus. It was a great year for the signal-caller, it just unfortunately ended with a huge thud in the playoffs.
Who should win: Christian McCaffrey. The dude led the league in total scrimmage yards and tied for the league lead in scrimmage touchdowns. And before we start the "but he's a running back" talk, the guy is an all-around player and elite receiver. He can run routes some true receivers can't even run. In all, he recorded the second-most receptions (75) and receiving yards (564), the most receiving touchdowns (7), and finished with the eight-best EPA/target (0.07) and third-best success rate (54.2%) of all running backs, per Sports Info Solutions. PFF has McCaffrey with the sixth-best yards per route run mark, as well. In terms of an all-around offensive player: it doesn't get any better than McCaffrey.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Finalists: Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson, Detroit Lions RB Jamyhr Gibbs, Detroit Lions TE Sam LaPorta, Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud, Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua
Prediction: C.J. Stroud. This is honestly the easiest choice on the list and that's pretty wild to say, considering the historical seasons both Nacua and LaPorta had, themselves. Gibbs and Robinson were no slouches, either, as they recorded over 1,250 and over 1,450 scrimmage yards, respectively. Stroud's season was one of the best we've ever seen and not only did he make it happen while playing the hardest position in both the NFL and sports in general – he also led the Texans to a division title and a playoff win.
Who should win: Stroud. There's nothing else to add, here.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Finalists: Houston Texans EDGE Will Anderson, Los Angeles Rams DT Kobie Turner, Philadelphia Eagles DT Jalen Carter, Pittsburgh Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr., Seattle Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon
Prediction: Will Anderson. This was a close race that should ultimately come down to Anderson or Turner, honestly. Turner has a two-sack lead, but Anderson wins in a lot of the advanced areas despite playing just one more pass rush snap than Carter and nearly 70 fewer than Turner. Anderson led both players in total pressures, pass rush productivity, and QB hits and Carter out-edged him in win rate by 1.4%, per PFF. The corners had solid seasons, but nothing as dominant as we've seen in years past and there simply weren't enough splash plays from either guy to warrant the nod.
Who should win: Anderson. Turner is a close second, in my book, but the Texans pass rusher has a tiny leg up that should lead to a victory.
Comeback Player of the Year
Finalists: Buffalo Bills S Damar Hamlin, Cleveland Browns QB Joe Flacco, Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford, Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa, Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield
Prediction: I really dislike what this award is becoming. Mayfield and Tagovailoa should not be finalists, but I digress. Hamlin is the obvious choice, here. The man almost died on the football field and was cleared to play over the offseason. He only played 111 snaps, but again, the guy almost died. How many people do you know would be able to even be in shape enough to get on the field after something like that?
Who should win: Hamlin. Like Stroud, there's nothing to add.
Coach of the Year
Finalists: Baltimore Ravens HC John Harbaugh, Cleveland Browns HC Kevin Stefanski, Detroit Lions HC Dan Campbell, Houston Texans HC DeMeco Ryans, San Francisco 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan
Prediction: DeMeco Ryans. Kevin Stefanski seemed to have the award in hand, but I think Ryans' division title at the end of the regular season was enough to surpass Stefanski. The Browns head coach did a helluva job with what was given to him, but the Browns were in a much better place roster-wise than the Texans, coming in. Plus, you know, all the head coaching experience Stefanski had to Ryans', um, none.
Who should win: Ryans. This was one of the best rookie head coach debuts we've ever seen and it needs to be treated as such.
Assistant Coach of the Year
Finalists: Baltimore Ravens DC Mike Macdonald, Baltimore Ravens OC Todd Monken, Cleveland Browns DC Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions OC Ben Johnson, Houston Texans OC Bobby Slowik
Prediction: Mike Mcdonald. This is another really tough one, as you can make a credible argument for Macdonald, Monknen, Johnson, and Slowik. Macdonald gets the nod because not only were the Ravens a historically great defense, he figured out the McVay/Shanahan offenses, which isn't easy to do, these days. He also whipped Johnson and Slowik in head-to-head matchups by a combined score of 63-15; neither offense scored a touchdown in its respective game.
Who should win: Macdonald. Slowik did a great job in Year 1, but Mcdonald had his unit performing at elite levels across the board, which is so hard to do in today's game.
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