Four things to watch for and a prediction as 49ers host the Cardinals in Week 5 NFC West matchup
The San Francisco 49ers got back to 2-2 last week with a comfortable win over the New England Patriots but, as they go into Week 5, they can ill-afford another slip-up in a divisional matchup. San Francisco is 0-2 inside the NFC this season and 0-1 in the NFC West having let slip a fourth-quarter […]
The San Francisco 49ers got back to 2-2 last week with a comfortable win over the New England Patriots but, as they go into Week 5, they can ill-afford another slip-up in a divisional matchup.
San Francisco is 0-2 inside the NFC this season and 0-1 in the NFC West having let slip a fourth-quarter lead against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3.
So it is imperative for a team harboring aspirations of returning to the Super Bowl that they take care of business in a home game with the Arizona Cardinals. Here are four things to watch for as the 49ers aim to do just that.
49ers bid to fix red zone failings
Last season, the 49ers were the most efficient team in the league inside the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 45 of their 67 possessions inside the 20.
So far in 2023, the Niners have found the endzone on just eight of their 16 red zone drives, with quarterback Brock Purdy believing the reason for that decline is a relatively simple one.
Said Purdy:
"I know it sounds pretty cliche, but I think just the simple executing your job, you know, and everybody doing their part. There’s been, everybody’s sort of had their moments in the red zone, including myself with reads, protection, guys picking up certain guys. And that’s what it comes down to. Everybody just has to do their job. You learn early throughout the season of what it takes, and it’s not just given to you down there. Especially down there, everything’s tighter. So, we’ve just got to be on point and learn from our mistakes and push each other in that area."
The 49ers figure to have better success inside the 20 against Arizona's defense, which has allowed a touchdown on 11 of its 16 red zone series. If San Francisco struggles to finish drives in this one, it will hint at a more serious problem than simple execution.
The Cardinals' defensive approach
Per Pro Football Focus, only Caleb Williams (22) has attempted more throws of 20 yards or more than Brock Purdy (20) this season, and no quarterback has more yardage on those deep passes than Purdy's 292.
The 49ers connected on four passing plays of at least 30 yards in last week's win over the Patriots.
Asked about the increased aggressiveness and high percentage of tight-window throws he has attempted this season, Purdy said:
"I would say it’s more team specific. Everybody sort of has a style of how they play. You know, Minnesota did their zone coverages and everything like that or brought all out. Last week against the Patriots, they did a good job of playing man and funneling everything to the middle. So, like there’s different themes every week. Obviously, they’re going to scheme us up and try to do what’s best for them and stopping us with the playmakers that we have. But at the same time, I do feel like there may be a theme of, you know, man coverage and try to play one-on-one football. We got that from the Rams, we got that last week with the Patriots. So, we do see it more and more to get man."
The Cardinals are unlikely to play much man against Purdy. Arizona has played Cover 3 on 39 percent of its snaps this year. The problem the Cardinals face, however, is that Purdy has shredded Cover 3 in 2024, ranking fourth in positive play rate (60.7%) against it, per Sports Info Solutions.
Should the Cardinals revert to more two-high coverage to limit Purdy's big-play opportunities, that will leave a run defense that has struggled mightily this season vulnerable to Jordan Mason and the 49er ground game. Arizona ranks 30th in success rate against the run and 27th in Expected Points Added per play.
No team outside of the Minnesota Vikings has consistently found good answers to stop Purdy this season. The 49ers will have an excellent shot of quickly pulling away in this one if the Cardinals can't find some convincing solutions.
The 49ers' Kyler conundrum
San Francisco's red zone issues loom large in this game because they serve to give opposing teams life, and that is the one thing the Niners cannot afford to do against a talented Arizona offense led by a quarterback who has regularly given them problems.
Though the 49ers have won the last four meetings with the Cardinals, they have had historically had issues dealing with the dual threat of quarterback Kyler Murray.
Despite the Cardinals' 1-3 record, Murray is enjoying a strong start to the season, ranking ninth in EPA per play and eighth in success rate.
Summing up the challenge posed by Murray, defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen said this week:
“I started to see him progressing last year, just how he operates in the pocket and how he gets through his progressions. He’s still dynamic as anything, as far as being able to move, get outside the pocket, create. But I think, you’re seeing him grow like any quarterback. He has the arm strength, he always has. He’s had the mobility, he always has. But like seeing how he can work through his progression and make all those throws has improved. He does have the arm strength and he can escape like a freaking punt returner. He’s got elite quickness and doesn’t have to have his feet set to throw the ball. So you have to be disciplined and you have to just keep running [as pass rushers]. You just have to keep going, regardless of who’s going. Even if you’ve got four, three, five, six, you have to keep going. Even in coverage too, really everybody, any of those guys that can extend plays. It’s one of those track shoes type days."
In short, the 49ers are facing a quarterback who is devastating when he gets out of the pocket but has also made significant strides inside of structure, ranking ninth in passer rating when kept clean (min. 50 total dropbacks), per PFF.
Murray poses a substantial conundrum for the 49ers, who must find a way to take away his options and get him on the ground in order to solve it.
Can Lenoir live up to the praise?
Crucial to the 49ers taking away Harrison's options will be cornerback Deommodore Lenoir, who is potentially taking himself out of San Francisco's price range for a contract extension next offseason with an outstanding start to the season.
Lenoir ranks seventh in EPA per target allowed among cornerbacks with at least 10 targets, per SIS, continuing to thrive while alternating between playing outside on base downs and playing in the slot on nickel downs.
"He’s improved a ton. I think he’s playing great," Sorensen said of Lenoir. "And you said it really good actually, that it’s hard to quantify if you’re just looking at stats like a lot of people. You don’t realize it until you actually really watch the tape and understand what he’s doing for us and what he allows us to do defensively. Really pleased with Demo."
With Cardinals playing 11 personnel at the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL, per Sumer Sports, the 49ers will likely see a lot of base looks, meaning a high number of matchups with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson for Lenoir.
Even when the Cardinals do go 11, Lenoir won't just go against Greg Dortch in the slot, Arizona having used both Harrison and Wilson inside in 2024.
Lenoir has shown his ability to hold up against the likes of Garrett Wilson and Justin Jefferson this year. This week, the 49ers' hopes of preventing the Cardinals from springing a shock will be in no small part dependent on his success in slowing down one of the most exciting young receiver corps in the league.
Prediction: Mason makes franchise history in 49ers win
Jordan Mason has an opportunity to make 49er franchise history on Sunday by becoming the first San Francisco player to record four 100-yard performances in the first five games of the season.
Given the Cardinals' fallibility against the run, look for Mason to achieve that feat. Arizona has the offensive weapons to keep this close, but the Cardinals are simply not good enough on defense to slow Purdy and, more pertinently, the 49er ground game down.
The 49ers will control this contest with the run game and get enough stops on defense to improve to 3-2.
49ers’ interior defensive line providing reason for optimism despite significant injury setbacks
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