Christian McCaffrey's 2023 season can be the perfect illustration of modern running back value
For those intensely bored by debates around running back value, large parts of the offseason news cycle will have proven extremely tedious. While discussions about whether the likes of Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs might have quickly grown tiresome, the illustration of running back value that Christian McCaffrey looks poised to provide in his first […]
For those intensely bored by debates around running back value, large parts of the offseason news cycle will have proven extremely tedious. While discussions about whether the likes of Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs might have quickly grown tiresome, the illustration of running back value that Christian McCaffrey looks poised to provide in his first full season with the 49ers is likely to be anything but.
McCaffrey enters the 2023 season carrying significant expectations after a spectacular start to his 49ers career, one which saw the former eighth overall pick transform a Kyle Shanahan offense that had looked surprisingly and worryingly dormant prior to his acquisition. From Weeks 1-7 of the 2022 season, the 49ers ranked an underwhelming 15th in Expected Points Added per play. From McCaffrey’s first start in Week 8 to the end of the regular season, they were second.
Across the span of 11 games, 10 of which were starts, McCaffrey amassed 1,210 yards from and 11 touchdowns from scrimmage and added a touchdown throw against the Rams for good measure.
Such numbers have people salivating at the thought of what he could do over a 17-game regular season with some, including NFL Network’s Peter Schrager, predicting McCaffrey to take home the MVP award.
No non-quarterback has won MVP since 2012, when Adrian Peterson claimed the award, and there is obvious reason to be skeptical about McCaffrey denying a member of the expanding group of top-tier quarterbacks from continuing that position’s dominion over the honor.
The usage question
The doubt in his ability to win MVP is primarily related to usage. McCaffrey played 68 percent of the offensive snaps for the 49ers following the trade, not an especially high number for a back who played 93 percent for the Panthers in a 2019 season that saw him record 1,000 yards as a runner and a receiver.
However, he averaged 19.2 touches per game, nearly 12 more than his next closest teammate to play double-digit games (Deebo Samuel – 7.5).
With the 49ers wanting to keep McCaffrey healthy for what they hope will be another deep playoff run, San Francisco may look to spell him a little more by relying on their impressive running back depth. On top of that, with everyone healthy, the 49ers can spread the ball around to a plethora of alternative targets in the passing game including Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle.
There is, therefore, reason to believe McCaffrey’s usage on a per-game basis might dip somewhat. Yet his value to the Niners in the coming season is less about the number of snaps or touches and more about the influence he has on the opposing defense and, in turn, the offensive production when he is on the field.
Coercing coverage
As Mina Kimes recently articulated on her ESPN podcast, between Weeks 1-8, the 49ers faced man coverage 36 percent of the time, 31st in the NFL. From Week 9 onwards, that number ballooned to 48.4 percent, the fifth-most in the league. For a team as effective against man as the Niners, that massive leap was critical.
Only the Kansas City Chiefs (40.8) and the Detroit Lions (40.3) had a greater percentage of their pass attempts go for a first down than the 49ers (39) in the period from McCaffrey’s first start until the end of the regular season, his arrival not only a help to the 49ers quarterbacks who received a dynamic checkdown option, but also to weapons like Aiyuk.
The 2020 first-round pick ended the year 13th among wideouts (min. 25 targets) in yards per route run against man coverage. Aiyuk, per Pro Football Focus, averaged 2.65 yards.
McCaffrey himself did an excellent job of shredding man coverage, finishing the year with 169 receiving yards and two touchdowns against man. Rather than putting more strain on his body by continually giving him a heavy workload of carries, the 49ers may instead focus more heavily on McCaffrey’s upside and versatility in the receiving game and the ways in which they can take advantage of his multiplicity.
Per PFF, McCaffrey lined up in the slot for 75 snaps and was out wide for 39 snaps in 2022, with his route-running acumen making him a substantial threat to do damage from both alignments. Indeed, McCaffrey has proven he can be a mismatch against linebackers, safeties and even some cornerbacks in the receiving game, where his efficiency is undoubted.
Elite efficiency
Austin Ekeler was the sole back to manage as many receiving first downs among running backs as McCaffrey’s 36 last season, while Tony Pollard (9.5) and Jerick McKinnon (9.3) were the only two players at the position with a minimum of 25 targets to average more yards per catch than McCaffrey 8.7.
Yet no back could compete with McCaffrey in Expected Points Added on passing plays. McCaffrey’s average of 0.170 EPA per play put him above the likes of DK Metcalf and D.J. Moore among pass-catchers with at least 100 such plays, per nflindex.com.
On top of that, his receiving Success Rate for the 2022 season of 52.8 percent was sixth for running backs, per Pro Football Reference. However, that number is dragged down by his appearances for Carolina last year, across which his Success Rate was 42 percent. For the 49ers it was 60 percent, which would have put him tied for 18th among all qualifying receivers.
In other words, pass plays involving McCaffrey continually got the required yardage and had a greater impact for the 49er offense than those featuring Metcalf, a 1,000-yard receiver, did for Seattle’s attack.
McCaffrey’s influence on the 49er passing game did not get the attention it merited last year, but that is not to say the focus on him as a runner wasn’t deserved. Though he did battle some nagging injury issues, McCaffrey consistently produced explosive plays on the ground, racking up nine rushes of 20 yards or more, tied for the fifth most in the NFL over the course of the campaign.
It is that big-play potential that should keep McCaffrey in the discussion as one of the league’s most valuable players even if he does see a slight dip in usage. Elijah Mitchell and the likes of Jordan Mason and Tyrion Davis-Price might be asked to do a little more of the dirty work, but the extra rest may facilitate more field-flipping runs by McCaffrey when he does carry the ball.
A historic MVP formula
Additionally, with his first full 17-game season for the Niners creating more opportunities not just for checkdowns, but also for downfield shots akin to his receiving touchdown against the Buccaneers in Week 14, there is clear scope for him to enjoy an expanded role as a receiver that is even more conducive to game-changing plays.
As such, despite a potentially more equal timeshare in the 49er backfield, it is not difficult to envision McCaffrey challenging for a historic second 1k-1k season. Were he to achieve that feat, he would become the first player in NFL history to record two such campaigns.
Delivering that kind of yardage for a team most anticipate to once again contend for the Super Bowl would at the very least place McCaffrey in the conversation as a player worthy of MVP votes.
Yet it is the stress he is expected to put on defenses that could be the decisive factor that turns him into a serious contender for the prize.
His dual-threat skill set out of the backfield forces defenses to sit in man coverage that the 49ers have the weapons and the scheme to consistently destroy, with McCaffrey’s receiving ability when he motions out of the backfield into the formation turning him into a matchup nightmare who frequently manipulates coverages.
That gravitational pull will likely only increase with the more chances he gets to line up in the backfield with self-titled ‘wide back’ Deebo Samuel.
McCaffrey’s performance in his first full season as a Niner likely won’t transform the running back market, and the odds are it won’t result in an MVP award.
Yet, between the strain he looks destined to put on defenses throughout 2023 and the production that should again be delivered in an efficient and frequently spectacular manner, McCaffrey’s maiden complete year as the focal point in the Shanahan offense is primed to serve as the definitive demonstration of what it is to be a truly valuable running back in 2023.
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