Christian McCaffrey trade verdict is beyond doubt on anniversary of blockbuster deal
Whatever industry you work in, it's important to celebrate your wins. A year to the day of the San Francisco 49ers' trade for Christian McCaffrey, I'm allowing myself to do just that. Before the 49ers elected to send second, third and fourth round picks in last year's draft and a 2024 fifth-rounder to the Carolina […]
Whatever industry you work in, it's important to celebrate your wins. A year to the day of the San Francisco 49ers' trade for Christian McCaffrey, I'm allowing myself to do just that.
Before the 49ers elected to send second, third and fourth round picks in last year's draft and a 2024 fifth-rounder to the Carolina Panthers in exchange for McCaffrey, I wrote a piece explaining why such a move was worth making. It was met with significant criticism, the primary pushback being that such a trade was unnecessary.
Twelve months on, the 49ers' trade for McCaffrey has proven to be exactly what their offense needed. I could take a prolonged victory lap, but too much self-congratulation is not something in which I have a significant interest. Instead, as the 49ers celebrate the anniversary of what now looks an extremely astute move, let's examine why the deal has been such an emphatic success.
An immediate and transformative impact
When McCaffrey joined the 49ers, their offense was stuck in the doldrums, ranking 18th in Expected Points Added per play and 21st in Success Rate over the first six weeks of last season.
Though a tight turnaround for the Week 7 game with the Kansas City Chiefs led to him operating on a pitch count for that defeat, McCaffrey's influence was felt from the moment he stepped on to the field for his first start in the 49ers' comfortable win over the Rams.
McCaffrey made history in that game by becoming only the fourth player since the 1970 merger to throw for a passing touchdown, record a receiving touchdown and run for a score in the same game.
It was a spectacular harbinger of what was to come from McCaffrey as he quickly became the focal point of the 49er offense, which went from an underperforming unit to an unequivocal juggernaut.
From McCaffrey's first start in Week 8 to the end of the 2022 regular season, the 49ers ranked second in EPA per play and fourth in success rate. That exponential rise in efficiency has only accelerated through the first six weeks of this season.
Even after a humbling at the hands of an exceptional Cleveland Browns defense, San Francisco's offense still ranks second in EPA per play and third in success rate. The Niners lead the NFL in EPA per dropback and are second in dropback success rate.
While McCaffrey is one of the premier runners in the NFL, it is his impact on the passing game that has made the trade such a home run.
More than just production
McCaffrey's status as one of the premier receiving backs in the NFL was already well established when San Francisco struck the trade, but the degree to which he has weaponized the 49er passing game was entirely unexpected.
Last season, McCaffrey's receiving success rate for the 49ers was 60 percent. This year it has ballooned to 66.7 percent, putting him 11th among all qualifying pass-catchers, directly below Miami Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill (66.8).
In other words, McCaffrey is getting the required yardage on his receptions at a rate akin to the most dynamic wideout in the NFL this season. McCaffrey could hardly be more of an aid to his quarterback, turning checkdowns into efficient gains but also significantly manipulating opposing defenses with the threat he poses as a receiver.
McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel's ability to both carry and catch the ball out of the backfield and excel as a receivers from any position in the formation consistently puts huge strain on defenses, with the influence they each have going in motion helping set up gimme throws for the quarterback.
Perhaps the best illustration of McCaffrey's importance to the 49ers came when he was out of the game last week in the narrow defeat to the Browns. With Brock Purdy shorn of both McCaffrey and Samuel's influence, the 49ers' quarterback had no easy answers against a ferocious defense, with San Francisco consistently unable to punish Cleveland for its aggressive use of man coverage.
The numbers for McCaffrey speak for themselves. Since his first start as a 49er, he leads the NFL in scrimmage yards (1,878) and touchdowns (19), with former Niner Raheem Mostert his closest challenger in the latter category (14). With touchdowns in 15 successive games across the regular season and postseason, he is two games shy of tying the all-time record set by Lenny Moore.
Yet it isn't just about the production with McCaffrey. His value to the 49ers is based in how he has unlocked an attack that was spinning its wheels when the trade was struck. For an offense that excels through giving its quarterback easy answers, McCaffrey is the ultimate solution. He is the skeleton key and the focal point in an offense teeming with star power.
His rise to such a position within the team leaves no doubt that the 49ers' most recent blockbuster trade has been a success, with his recent oblique injury scare demonstrating why San Francisco must be very careful not to put too much strain on a player they need to hold up if the deal is to eventually prove pivotal to the franchise winning a sixth Super Bowl title.
Kyle Shanahan happy to maintain Christian McCaffrey’s potentially historic usage
He doesn’t see a problem doing so.
