49ers coach gets vote of confidence that is difficult to take seriously amid their recent slump
The San Francisco 49ers fired defensive coordinator Steve Wilks following their Super Bowl 58 loss in the hope of elevating their defense back to the gold standard in the NFL. Instead the opposite has happened, with the in-house promotion of Nick Sorensen coming in for increasing scrutiny in the wake of the 49ers' 35-10 defeat […]
The San Francisco 49ers fired defensive coordinator Steve Wilks following their Super Bowl 58 loss in the hope of elevating their defense back to the gold standard in the NFL.
Instead the opposite has happened, with the in-house promotion of Nick Sorensen coming in for increasing scrutiny in the wake of the 49ers' 35-10 defeat to the Buffalo Bills in primetime in Week 13.
Yet asked about Sorensen's performance in his debut season calling plays, head coach Kyle Shanahan provided him with a vote of confidence on Monday.
"I'm very satisfied with Nick," said Shanahan. "I'm not at all satisfied with the results and how it's going right now.
"But, some of the mistakes that we've made, I don't think or what's happened here in these last two weeks, I don't think that's a schematic issue. It's a little bit more of a fundamental issue. And that also starts with me. That goes to all coaching, and it goes down to the players, it goes to everyone in this building.
"But the results here these last two weeks haven't changed my opinion on Nick."
The evidence suggests that the results probably should change his opinion.
Few signs of improvement
The last two weeks have seen the 49ers give up 389 yards on the ground across blowout losses to the Green Bay Packers and the Bills.
The struggles against the Bills came in snowy conditions conducive to running the ball, but the recent disappointing efforts in that regard speak to an inability to fail to improve what was a weakness down the stretch and in the playoffs last season.
San Francisco has allowed at least 100 rushing yards in six of its 12 games this season. That is the same amount the 49ers gave up in the entirety of the 2023 campaign.
And the inability to foster improvements is a problem that goes beyond the run defense. The 49er pass rush has struggled to dominate games. San Francisco blitzes at the second-lowest rate in the NFL, but the 49ers aren't getting home with four consistently. They rank 15th in pressure rate and tied 21st in sacks (28) per Pro Football Reference.
The one thing the 49ers can claim to do at an extremely high level is play coverage. San Francisco ranks second behind Philadelphia in overall Pro Football Focus coverage grade, with an outstanding season from Deommodore Lenoir and impressive rookie years from Renardo Green and Malik Mustapha contributing to that standing.
But even with the defensive backfield shining, the 49er defense overall has gone backwards. San Francisco was first in DVOA on defense in 2022 under DeMeco Ryans and fourth in 2023. At this point in 2024, it is ninth. Still good in terms of per-play value but, much like Neal Page and Del Griffith, going the wrong way.
The 2022 season saw the 49ers first in Expected Points Added per play and second in success rate on defense. Last year, they were 10th in EPA per play and 15th in success rate. In 2024, they are 17th in EPA per play and 25th in success rate.
In other words, the decline was well underway with Wilks, but Sorensen has overseen an acceleration of it.
A stale formula
There are caveats. Those numbers are heavily influenced by the last two weeks. Prior to the losses in Green Bay and Buffalo, the 49ers were 12th in EPA per play and 17th in success rate. On top of that, Sorensen has dealt with a mountain of injuries, with only three players from the Super Bowl defense present on the starting unit against Buffalo.
Even accepting for the difficulty injuries have brought, the product on the field is a poor reflection of Sorensen.
Shanahan may insist that the problems aren't schematic, but the problem is that, with the 49ers lacking the horses to take over games defensively, there have been few signs of Sorensen-inspired tweaks to the scheme to elevate a group filled with inexperienced players to the point where they could have any hope of holding Jordan Love and Josh Allen in check.
And if Sorensen isn't elevating the players he has with schematic changes and those same players are still committing mistakes related to fundamentals in Week 13(!!!), then there's probably enough justification to ask 'what would you say you do here?'
It's worth recognizing that the defense has had very little help from the offense over the past fortnight, and the Niners' continued red zone struggles have made life more difficult for Sorensen's group throughout the year.
But that still does not excuse the increasingly lifeless defensive performances.
It's the same formula the 49ers have lived by on defense throughout the Kyle Shanahan era, rush four and play coverage. The 49ers are playing coverage well, but the rush isn't winning consistently and has proven hugely vulnerable to scrambling quarterbacks. Additionally, that rush is substantially less effective when the run defense regularly gives up explosive gains on the ground
Ryans was an outstanding defensive coordinator in part because he could throw extremely effective changeups when required (See the 2022 season and especially the playoff victories in the 2021 campaign). Wilks' main changeup was pressure but, as was witnessed in the Super Bowl, often called at the worst possible time.
Right now, Sorensen looks to be a coach without a changeup. The 49ers don't blitz often and they lean heavily on Cover 3 with strong doses of Cover 1 and quarters. Entering Week 13, their coverage disguise rate, per FieldVision Sports (h/t Cody Alexander) of 23.9% was the eighth-lowest in the league.
His is a classic 49ers' defensive recipe, but that recipe has gone stale and the chef seems ill-equipped to deliver any new ideas. Unless he can find some over the course of the next five games, it may be time to close down the kitchen.
Shanahan's vote of confidence is best taken with a huge pinch of salt, as his upbeat assessment of Sorensen seems likely to swiftly change when the 49ers sit down to review a hugely disappointing season.
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They had previously shown an interest.
