Deebo Samuel's presence in A to Z Sports Top 105 reflects looming problem for 49ers next offseason
Deebo Samuel would probably be the first to admit that his last two seasons haven't lived up to the extremely high standards he sets for himself. He was vocal about his assessment of his 2022 campaign, labeling it 'sluggish'. His 2023 was better, and the numbers were impressive. Samuel had 1,117 yards from scrimmage and […]
Deebo Samuel would probably be the first to admit that his last two seasons haven't lived up to the extremely high standards he sets for himself.
He was vocal about his assessment of his 2022 campaign, labeling it 'sluggish'. His 2023 was better, and the numbers were impressive. Samuel had 1,117 yards from scrimmage and 12 total touchdowns.
Still, it was some way short of his 2021 zenith, a first-team All-Pro season in which he could be considered to have carried, alongside a surging defense, the 49ers to the NFC Championship Game. Samuel posted a whopping 1,770 yards from scrimmage and 14 touchdowns in the 2021 regular season, eight of those scores coming on the ground, an NFL record for a receiver in a single campaign.
In fairness to Samuel, that season was always going to be difficult to replicate, never mind top, and the makeup of the 49er offense has changed drastically since then. Christian McCaffrey is the focal point following his arrival in a 2022 trade and won Offensive Player of the Year last season. Brandon Aiyuk has emerged as the favorite target for Brock Purdy, whose incredible ascension to franchise quarterback has allowed the Niners to evolve their dropback game, with Purdy taking substantially more downfield shots than Jimmy Garoppolo ever did.
Despite all that, Samuel's multiplicity as a receiver and a runner, his incredible yards after catch upside and his tone-setting physicality make him critical to the 49er offense, and his all-round game still merited him a place in A to Z Sports' Top 105 list.
Samuel came in at 98th on the list and, in writing his blurb, I pointed to a future problem for the 49ers concerning their 2019 second-round pick.
"A three-game losing streak coinciding with Samuel suffering a shoulder injury and the 49ers’ initial struggles without him in the Divisional round against the Packers illustrated just how important he still is to San Francisco. If 2024 is, as many suspect, to be Samuel’s last year with the Niners, they better have a damn good succession plan."
Samuel set for a 2025 goodbye?
Samuel is under contract for 2025, but he's under contract at a very high number. He carries a $24.2 million cap hit in the final year of the three-year extension he signed in 2022. That is down from this year's cap hit of $28.6 million but, with Purdy likely set to become an extremely highly paid quarterback next offseason, there's reason to believe the 49ers may begrudgingly part ways with Samuel.
The accepted school of thought is that Purdy's contract will make their 49ers' star-studded roster harder to keep together and, that should the Niners find a way to break their contract impasse with Aiyuk, they will be unable to have two All-Pro receivers on the depth chart at high cap numbers.
San Francisco can save $17.5 million against the cap next offseason by parting with Samuel in a move that carries a post-June 1 designation. With the 49ers selecting wide receiver Ricky Pearsall in the first round of this year's draft, all signs would appear to point to them making such a decision.
Yet, as I laid out in the first Top 105 piece, the 49ers do not have a receiver who can replicate Samuel's impact.
In respect of Aiyuk, the 49ers now have a separation artist in Pearsall who shares the same ability to win quickly with route-running craft. On top of that, San Francisco may well believe it could replace Aiyuk's impact as a downfield receiver by getting fourth-round speedster Jacob Cowing on the field.
Moving on from Aiyuk and betting on two 2024 draft picks to fill the void would be a risk, but at least it would be a plan carrying some validity and chance of paying dividends.
Right now, there is no immediately obvious plan to fill the chasm Samuel would leave behind.
Don't rule out an extension
His potential departure is not something head coach Kyle Shanahan will even think about until next offseason, but it's a possibility of which those in the front office need to be mindful.
The 49ers could have taken a Deebo-esque receiver in this year's draft. They had top-30 visits with two such players in Malachi Corley and Xavier Legette.
Instead, they went with Pearsall and Cowing, and that has left them with two options with Samuel next year.
They can move on, which would leave the Niners with further decisions to make. If the 49ers were to take that step without believing they have a way of replacing him in-house, they would need to choose whether to try to source a successor or to move to a new era without his kind of skill set on the roster.
However, they could also choose to kick the can down the road with an extension that spreads the cost of his 2025 cap hit and keeps the band together a little while longer.
That would raise questions about the roles of Pearsall and Cowing going forward but, based on their track record, don't rule out the 49ers doing the latter and defying those who believe 2024 could be Samuel's last ride with San Francisco.
2021 NFL Re-Draft would put San Francisco 49ers in extraordinary position at area of weakness
It would have been a home-run pick.
