Fred Warner perfectly sums up massive challenge the 49ers face against Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl 58

The San Francisco 49ers' defense has not put together a complete game in the playoffs to this point.  San Francisco has had to overcome slow starts in each of its two playoff victories, but the 49ers are unlikely to get away with a third against the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl […]

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Feb 8, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; San Francisco 49ers linebacker Fred Warner (54) during a press conference before Super Bowl LVIII at Hilton Lake Las Vegas Resort and Spa.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco 49ers' defense has not put together a complete game in the playoffs to this point. 

San Francisco has had to overcome slow starts in each of its two playoff victories, but the 49ers are unlikely to get away with a third against the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl 58.

Kansas City's offense may not be the potent force it once was, but in the postseason Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce have appeared revitalized, with their connection seemingly as strong as ever. 

Middle of the field focus

Kelce has caught 23 of his 27 targets this postseason for 262 yards and three touchdowns.

As such, the passing game emphasis for a 49ers defense that has rebounded in the second half of games in the playoffs is to ensure that connection is severed early, and that Mahomes' opportunities to hit other targets such as standout rookie Rashee Rice are limited.

The problem is that, while linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw do an excellent job of taking away the middle of the field and restricting the throwing windows Kelce and Co. will look to attack, Mahomes is uniquely gifted at creating his own windows with his incredible arm and his ability to create plays inside and outside the structure of the offense.

That gives the 49ers, and particularly their middle of the field defenders, a challenge Warner perfectly encapsulated on Thursday.

Playing two plays at once

“He’s just a really special player,” Warner said of Mahomes in his press conference. 

"I think the things that he does play in and play out, he obviously can do a lot of different things in terms of extending the play, he has a great connection with his players, specifically Travis and knowing exactly where he’s going to be, finding open space. And so you might be more used to having your eyes on the quarterback and being able to read him but you have to have awareness for where the receivers are on the field at all times.

"He’s obviously going to break the pocket and do those sort of things, being able to plaster guys [in pass coverage] late in the down, it’s like playing two different plays in one. That’s what makes it so hard with him."

Warner is ideally equipped for the challenge of defending two different plays in one and ensuring the connection with Kelce never gets going on Sunday. Among defenders with at least 25 targets to the middle, right middle and left middle of the field, Warner's EPA of minus 14.42 is the best among all linebackers and the second best in the NFL.

In the playoffs, Mahomes is second in EPA on throws to those areas of the field, which have a positive play rate of 59%, putting him second behind Jared Goff among quarterbacks to play multiple postseason games. Rice is first in EPA on those targets and Kelce is fifth.

To put it another way, Mahomes attacking the middle of the field against Warner is a true heavyweight bout in a town with a rich prize fighting history. Warner must find a way to excel at the juggling act he laid out for the 49ers to be the ones with their hands raised come Sunday evening.