49ers Playoff Picture: Path to the No. 1 seed looks a lot trickier

The San Francisco 49ers took care of their own business in Week 11 and got some help inside the division in the fight for the NFC West. However, they did not get the assistance many would have anticipated from the Kansas City Chiefs, whose inability to consistently catch the football in primetime had a potentially […]

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Nov 19, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers defensive end Chase Young (92) is congratulated by defensive end Nick Bosa (97) after recording a sack against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium.
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco 49ers took care of their own business in Week 11 and got some help inside the division in the fight for the NFC West.

However, they did not get the assistance many would have anticipated from the Kansas City Chiefs, whose inability to consistently catch the football in primetime had a potentially huge impact on San Francisco's ambitions.

The Philadelphia Eagles shocked the Chiefs in a Super Bowl rematch on Monday night, reducing the 49ers' hopes of achieving one of their main goals for the season. 

Here's how the NFC playoff picture looks entering Week 12.

NFC playoff picture if the season ended today

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (9-1) – 1st NFC East
  2. Detroit Lions (8-2) – 1st NFC North
  3. San Francisco 49ers (7-3) – 1st NFC West
  4. New Orleans Saints (5-5) – 1st NFC South
  5. Dallas Cowboys (7-3) – Wild Card
  6. Seattle Seahawks (6-4) – Wild Card
  7. Minnesota Vikings (6-5) – Wild Card

In the hunt

  • Green Bay Packers (4-6)
  • Los Angeles Rams (4-6)
  • Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6)
  • Washington Commanders (4-7)

The 49ers were likely hoping the Chiefs could replicate their Super Bowl win over the Eagles and help pull San Francisco within a game of Philadelphia in the race for the one seed.

Instead, the 49ers are looking at an uphill battle to emerge as the NFC's top seed and claim home field advantage throughout the playoffs as well as the first-round bye.

Their hopes are not dead and buried, though, and the 49ers' Week 13 clash with the Eagles in Philadelphia will go a long way to deciding the race to the summit in the conference.

Can the 49ers get the one seed?

Given the top-heavy nature of the NFC, the Niners look almost assured to make the playoffs. The New York Times has the 49ers with over a 99 percent chance to reach the postseason.

For the 49ers, the question surrounds their seeding and, despite Philadelphia dealing them a significant blow with victory in Kansas City, the number one seed is not yet out of reach.

Philadelphia is obviously the firm favorite, given a 71% shot at finishing with the one seed, while the 49ers have just a 15% chance, though that is still better than the Lions (10%).

Simply put, the 49ers must win in Philadelphia to have a realistic hope of flipping the odds in their favor, but right now they will be solely focused on taking a big step towards winning the NFC West.

Could Seattle steal the west from the 49ers?

Though the 49ers have a one-game lead in the division, they cannot feel entirely comfortable.

A defeat to the Seahawks on Thanksgiving night would see Seattle leapfrog San Francisco atop the standings.

Yet the Seahawks taking and maintaining the lead is not something that is viewed as a realistic possibility.

The NYT model gives the 49ers a 95% chance to retain the West, whereas the Seahawks have just a 4% shot to dethrone them.

A Seahawks win in primetime would significantly change things. However, a stretch in which Seattle faces the Niners twice either side of a game with the Cowboys before a meeting with the Eagles is one that figures to be extremely difficult for Pete Carroll's team to navigate given its struggles seeing off mediocre opponents.

The 49ers consistently dominated the Seahawks across three games last season and, with Geno Smith banged up and Kenneth Walker III set to miss Thursday's game, the smart money is on a season sweep that will keep the West firmly in San Francisco's hands.

49ers remaining schedule

  • at Seattle Seahawks
  • at Philadelphia Eagles
  • vs Seattle Seahawks
  • at Arizona Cardinals
  • vs Baltimore Ravens
  • at Washington Commanders
  • vs Los Angeles Rams