How the 49ers' offensive approach may change without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle
Brock Purdy is familiar with the feeling of victory at SoFi Stadium, having helped the San Francisco 49ers to a Week 2 win over the Los Angeles Rams last year. He'll attempt to replicate that feat in Week 3 this season, but he'll have to overcome a very unfamiliar set of circumstances in order to […]
Brock Purdy is familiar with the feeling of victory at SoFi Stadium, having helped the San Francisco 49ers to a Week 2 win over the Los Angeles Rams last year.
He'll attempt to replicate that feat in Week 3 this season, but he'll have to overcome a very unfamiliar set of circumstances in order to do so.
With tight end George Kittle downgraded to out on Saturday because of a hamstring injury, Purdy faces the prospect of heading into a game without Kittle, running back Christian McCaffrey and wide receiver Deebo Samuel. McCaffrey remains on injured reserve with a calf injury and Achilles tendinitis, while Samuel is out with a calf strain.
Since the 49ers traded for McCaffrey, Purdy has taken just 10 snaps under center without the reigning Offensive Player of the Year, Samuel and Kittle on the field, per Nick Wagoner of ESPN.
On those snaps, Purdy is three of seven for 49 yards with no touchdowns and an interception.
The 49ers still have All-Pro Brandon Aiyuk and another receiver in Jauan Jennings with whom Purdy has an excellent rapport. However, shorn of that superstar trio, the 49ers are going to need a very good plan to be productive on offense, even against a Rams defense that has endured an extremely difficult start to the season.
So how might the 49ers' offensive approach change without McCaffrey, Samuel and Kittle?
A different menu, same amount of dishes
Asked earlier this week about the impact of the loss of McCaffrey and Samuel on the playbook, head coach Kyle Shanahan replied:
"I mean, we still have the same amount of plays, just somewhat different styles of plays, different people in different spots, eliminate some special things that you would only do for those guys. But the number doesn't change. Just there's things those guys do very well, nothing other guys can't do but there's kind of different percentages on how much you call them and things like that."
The "things those guys do very well" most likely relates to their interchangeability, with Samuel an extremely dynamic ball-carrier out of the backfield and McCaffrey a cheat code with his receiving ability both out of the backfield and lined up in the formation.
The 49ers have already had to live without McCaffrey's influence in that regard, with replacement Jordan Mason limited to just one catch for four yards in last week's loss to the Minnesota Vikings.
Samuel was also scarcely used in the running game in Week 2 after carrying the ball eight times in Week 1, but the 49ers do have a candidate to replace his production on jet sweeps and screen passes. The question, however, concerns how willing Kyle Shanahan is to use him.
Cowing's time to shine?
The 49ers were more than willing to give fourth-round rookie Jacob Cowing opportunities on sweeps during the preseason, and general manager John Lynch said on Friday that the injuries would lead to more opportunities for the former Arizona Wildcat.
However, in his final press conference before the 49ers travel to Los Angeles, Shanahan gave a lukewarm response on the idea of Cowing being more involved.
"Possibly. He’s got more opportunities with guys down, but he’ll be in the rotation there," Shanahan said. "But possibly. He gets better and better each week and still looking to see where he can fill in."
Cowing certainly has the speed to do substantial damage as a ball-carrier and flashed in preseason as a player who can create explosive plays in the passing game with his physical gifts and his route-running ability.
Shanahan gave no indication his trust in Cowing has been damaged by his muffed punt in the Vikings loss, but the level of his involvement in the passing game will likely be decided by how the 49ers elect to respond to Kittle's unexpected absence.
Turning it up to 11?
Through the first two games of the season, no team has used 21 personnel at a higher rate than the 49ers.
Their ability to get five pass-catchers out into patterns from that heavy personnel grouping has made them a nightmare to defend since McCaffrey's arrival.
However, per Sumer Sports, the 49ers have averaged negative EPA per pass from 21 without McCaffrey, and its effectiveness is likely to be further compromised without Kittle.
San Francisco has great faith in Kittle's backup Eric Saubert, with Kyle Shanahan expressing as much on Friday.
“I thought he’s done a hell of a job," said Shanahan. "He’s stepped in well. Kittle was cramping most of the game, so he had to do a lot throughout the Minnesota game.
"He’s been real consistent since he’s been here. If he’s got to do it all, he’s up for the challenge. He’s shown he can help us in the passing and the run game."
In private, however, Shanahan will acknowledge that Saubert is not close to being as dynamic as Kittle in the receiving game. Put simply, going from McCaffrey, Samuel and Kittle as part of the 21 package to Jordan Mason, Jauan Jennings and Saubert takes away much of the unpredictability that has made the 49ers so dynamic out of that grouping.
As such, the 49ers may need to pivot more in the direction of the personnel grouping that is the most popular in the modern NFL.
The Niners are 28th in the NFL in their usage of 11, yet they are sixth in EPA on plays from that grouping, ranking eighth in pass EPA and seventh in rush EPA out of 11.
Given Kyle Juszczyk's versatility at fullback, the 49ers would probably like to use him as much as possible, and they are not prohibited from doing so in 11, in which he could be deployed as the tight end.
Regardless of whether Juszczyk or Saubert lines up at tight end, 11 personnel would give the 49ers the option of using Cowing as a third receiver to stretch the field, knowing that he showed some run blocking capability in the preseason and that both Aiyuk and Jennings are highly proficient run blockers.
If the 49ers do not feel comfortable with Cowing, then both Ronnie Bell and Chris Conley are players on whom they know they can depend to at least pose a threat in the passing game and provide committed effort as run blockers.
With Kittle out, a greater emphasis on 11 would make a lot of sense. Irrespective of what formation the 49ers prioritize, there is one clear way in which they will doubtless look to attack the Rams' defense.
The Shanahan staples
The one thing the 49ers have had no problem doing so far without McCaffrey is the thing they have always done best under Kyle Shanahan.
San Francisco, with Jordan Mason in the backfield, is fourth in success rate (48.2%) running the ball this season.
Kittle is a key cog in their ability to excel rushing the ball, but the 49ers won't hesitate to do so without him against a Rams defense that has allowed the highest success rate in the NFL to opposing running games.
But his absence might change how often the 49ers target the tight end position in an aspect of the passing game in which he typically plays a huge role.
The 49ers' use of play action has been conspicuous by its absence so far in 2024.
Just 10 of Purdy's dropbacks this season have featured play action, per Pro Football Focus, though he has averaged nine yards per attempt throwing the ball off it.
Explaining the lack of play fakes this season, Shanahan said this week: "Just schematic reasons, who we were going against, what’s good versus these teams? Sometimes, when play action doesn’t do much for six on the line, doesn’t do much for a lot of blitzes, things like that. So that a little factored to do with the last week. I’d say the week before, running it 38 times limits everything a little bit."
The 49ers will obviously hope to run the ball with such success that they do not need to rely on play fakes very often, but they likely won't need to worry about play action being disrupted by an aggressive blitzing approach by the Rams or the Los Angeles defense changing the picture from pre to post-snap as the Vikings did consistently in Week 2.
Los Angeles simply does not have the talent in the secondary to risk being ultra aggressive by blitzing consistently. The Rams have sent extra pass rushers just 15.8% of the time, per Pro Football Reference, the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL.
Play action therefore figures to be firmly back on menu. However, instead of those plays targeting Kittle, in-breakers to Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings off play action will likely feature very prominently.
In short, the 49ers' playbook might not have the same level of complexity as it would with McCaffrey and Samuel available, but the Shanahan staples will be largely unaffected by their absences.
Deprived of Kittle's presence, the questions surround how involved the tight ends will be in the passing game and whether Shanahan will give a shot to a rookie who could potentially replace some of Samuel's production and provide the Niners with an extra dimension in a game in which they will be down a couple they usually have.
49ers final injury report for Week 3 clash with Rams features more bad news for Brock Purdy
It’s another challenge for the quarterback to overcome.
