NFC Playoff Picture: One goal down, two to go for the 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers have achieved the foremost goal every contending team sets themselves at the start of the year: get to the postseason. San Francisco's place in the playoffs was confirmed on Monday by the New York Giants' surprise victory over the Green Bay Packers. Now the Super Bowl favorites have two regular-season goals […]

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Dec 10, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) stands next to wide receiver Deebo Samuel (19) and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) after the 49ers picked up a first down near the end zone against the Seattle Seahawks in the third quarter at Levi's Stadium.
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco 49ers have achieved the foremost goal every contending team sets themselves at the start of the year: get to the postseason.

San Francisco's place in the playoffs was confirmed on Monday by the New York Giants' surprise victory over the Green Bay Packers.

Now the Super Bowl favorites have two regular-season goals remaining, and they are in position to achieve them both.

Here's how the NFC playoff picture stands after Week 14.

NFC Playoff Picture

  1. San Francisco 49ers (10-3) – First in NFC West
  2. Dallas Cowboys (10-3) – First in NFC East
  3. Detroit Lions (9-4) – First in NFC North
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) – First in NFC South
  5. Philadelphia Eagles (10-3) – Wild Card
  6. Minnesota Vikings (7-6) – Wild Card
  7. Green Bay Packers (6-7) – Wild Card

In the hunt

  • Los Angeles Rams (6-7)
  • Seattle Seahawks (6-7)
  • Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
  • New Orleans Saints (6-7)
  • New York Giants (5-8)
  • Chicago Bears (5-8)

Up next: Win the West

Their place secured, the 49ers can make sure they will at the very least host a Wild Card matchup by securing a second successive NFC West title.

They will do so with a victory over the Arizona Cardinals. Failing that, the 49ers will win the division if the Los Angeles Rams suffer a surprise defeat to the Washington Commanders.

San Francisco can ill-afford such a slip-up, however, against a team playing out the string if it wants to maintain control of its own destiny in the one seed race. The task in Week 15 is clear, take care of business, put on the division hat and t-shirt and then move on to a massive Christmas Day game with the Baltimore Ravens.

49ers the one seed favorites

The 49ers are given a 74 percent chance to claim the one seed by The New York Times' playoff simulator, making them the clear favorites ahead of the Eagles (20%) and Cowboys (6%) despite Philadelphia having a very soft schedule to finish after facing the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football.

Having put Seattle to the sword last Sunday, the 49ers would greatly benefit from a favor from the Seahawks in primetime. If the Niners beat the Cardinals and the Eagles lose in Seattle, the 49ers' one seed odds would improve to 90 percent. Should the Cowboys also suffer defeat on the road to the Buffalo Bills, they would balloon further to 94 percent.

After reeling in Philadelphia, the 49ers could, with some help, take complete control of the one seed race and gain some potentially critical wiggle room.

Week 15 looks likely to be decisive for the division, and it could also prove to be similarly consequential in the fight for the first-round bye.

49ers' remaining schedule

  • at Cardinals
  • vs. Ravens
  • at Commanders
  • vs. Rams