Kyle Shanahan's extreme confidence in Sam Darnold is justified
San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has had significant success with a host of different quarterbacks throughout his esteemed career as an NFL play-caller. From Matt Schaub to Robert Griffin III, Matt Ryan, Jimmy Garoppolo and most recently Brock Purdy, Shanahan has helped elevate an array of different signal-callers to extremely high levels of […]
San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has had significant success with a host of different quarterbacks throughout his esteemed career as an NFL play-caller.
From Matt Schaub to Robert Griffin III, Matt Ryan, Jimmy Garoppolo and most recently Brock Purdy, Shanahan has helped elevate an array of different signal-callers to extremely high levels of play, Ryan winning MVP in the 2016 season.
Not every quarterback to play for him has been a success story. C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens could not reach the desired standards, though the latter still put up some extremely impressive numbers when injury forced him into the starting lineup for the Niners. Yet the case can be made that Shanahan has never had a thrower of the football as talented as Sam Darnold.
On Sunday, Darnold looks set to get his chance to show what he can do in the Shanahan offense. The former third overall pick in the 2018 draft, who beat out Trey Lance for the backup job, is in line to start for the Niners in a huge matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8 after Purdy was placed in the concussion protocol.
Shanahan's tremendous faith
Darnold has never lived up to the billing with which he entered the NFL, but there is plenty of belief both inside and outside the 49ers' organization that Shanahan is the coach to help him do so.
Shanahan said of Darnold on Wednesday: "I have as much confidence in Sam as I could have with someone that I haven't gone into a real NFL game with. He was great in the offseason. He’s been great here in these seven weeks so far and he’s always ready to go."
The 49ers head coach obviously has no concern about his offense if he has to hand the reins to Darnold, and ESPN's Dan Orlovsky echoed Shanahan's confidence in an NFL Live segment in the wake of the news of Purdy's injury.
Said Orlovsky:
“I do not expect them to skip a beat. I think they will be just fine with Sam Darnold. I have constantly believed that if Sam Darnold was placed on a team that was similar to San Francisco, he would play worthy of that top draft pick. This young man has been weathered, he’s mentally been through it all. He’s the most talented quarterback, physically, that Kyle Shanahan has had in that offense, at least since Matt Ryan. Out of all due respect to Brock Purdy, he’s a really good player, this offense will be just fine with Sam Darnold."
Such comments may seem bemusing considering Darnold's career numbers. He is 21-34 as a starter with a career completion percentage of just 59.7. Darnold has a 42 percent passing success rate for his career and a passer rating of 78.2.
However, the case can be made Darnold has never played in a situation conducive to success, at least until last season.
Darnold's encouraging 2022
His time with the New York Jets was defined by tumult under Todd Bowles and then Adam Gase. His early success in his first season with the Carolina Panthers in 2021 was quickly washed away in a campaign that saw offensive coordinator Joe Brady replaced during a season he did not finish as starter.
It was only when now 49ers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, then the interim coach in Carolina, promoted him to the starting role in Week 12 of last season, that Darnold could be considered to have a support system capable of helping him thrive.
Still, Darnold was still trying to overcome a talent deficit for most of that six-game spell, making his efficient performances all the more impressive.
The Panthers went 4-2 in that period, with Darnold ranking seventh in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play among qualifying quarterbacks in that span.
EPA is widely regarded as a reflection of the offense as a whole rather than quarterback play in insolation, however, when his average was combined with his completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), Darnold ranked fourth, above Purdy (7th), in that composite metric for his six games as Panthers starter in 2022.
Delivering that kind of performance for a Panthers offense coordinated by Ben McAdoo indicates Darnold should find success under Shanahan in an offense filled with elite talent easy to come by.
The NFL is not always that simple, of course, but there was also plenty in preseason that pointed to Darnold finding joy in the Shanahan system as he won the QB2 competition by not only delivering accurate downfield passes outside the numbers, but also through efficiently operating the offense with the quick short to intermediate throws of which Purdy has quickly become a master.
Of course, the reaction to the 49ers having to pivot Darnold will have been one of derision by many. Plenty will write off San Francisco's chances this weekend and can be forgiven for doing so given Darnold's track record.
Yet the most recent sample size Darnold provided in the regular season was an encouraging one and now he gets to use a skill set that has long since tantalized the football cognoscenti and put it to the test in a regular-season game in the NFL's most successful quarterback incubator.
The 49ers are right to be optimistic and Darnold's latest opportunity should not be dismissed, but rather relished as one of the most fascinating football experiments of the modern era.
Which broadcast team is calling San Francisco 49ers vs. Cincinnati Bengals?
It’s getting the announcers it deserves.
