49ers are a top-five team that must find a way to remove albatross hindering Super Bowl hopes
The San Francisco 49ers got back on track last week with their primetime win over the Seattle Seahawks, but they have made it clear they are far from happy with a 3-3 record through six games, even if it has them top of the NFC West. San Francisco has reason to be dissatisfied, with that […]
The San Francisco 49ers got back on track last week with their primetime win over the Seattle Seahawks, but they have made it clear they are far from happy with a 3-3 record through six games, even if it has them top of the NFC West.
San Francisco has reason to be dissatisfied, with that record far from reflective of how the Niners have played overall in the 2024 campaign.
The 49ers' performance in advanced metrics so far this season is that of a top-five team.
Indeed, following their Week 6 victory in Seattle, the 49ers rank fourth in ESPN's Football Power Index, a measure of team strength that is intended to be a predictor of their performance for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.
Meanwhile, the 49ers have also vaulted from ninth to fifth in DVOA, which measures per play value, per FTN Fantasy. In other words, the 49ers remain one of the most efficient teams in football, even if the record does not show it.
The record is not reflective of their performance because of the 49ers' failure to finish in two of their three losses, defeats to the Los Angeles Rams and the Arizona Cardinals in which they let double-digit leads slip.
But a slightly deeper look at the DVOA numbers illustrates a problem that is quite obviously holding the 49ers back.
San Francisco is fourth in DVOA on offense and fifth on defense. The reason the 49ers are not higher than fifth overall is their performance on special teams, which has been disastrous.
The 49ers rank 31st in special teams DVOA, their standing in that regard made worse by the 97-yard kickoff return for a touchdown they allowed in the win over Seattle.
San Francisco is 29th in opponent kick return average (33.8 yards) and 27th in opponent punt return average, the Niners' struggles in the latter area directly contributing to their loss to the Rams.
The 49ers' offense is once again one of the best in the league and there have been steady signs of improvement from the defense. However, both those efforts are being undermined by a special teams unit that is affording opposing offenses the best average starting field position (31.8 yards) in the NFL, consistently putting the defense in difficult positions.
In short, the special teams is an albatross around the neck of a team that should have one of the best records in the NFL. The 49ers can't afford for it to continue to drag them down and, heading into an extremely tough stretch of the season that starts with a Super Bowl rematch against the Kansas City Chiefs, they must find a fix.
