49ers must make most of their heaviest advantage over the Packers

From rest, to homefield advantage to a huge gap in experience and talent, the vast majority of the advantages appear to be stacked in the favor of the San Francisco 49ers for Saturday's divisional round clash with the Green Bay Packers. But edges can disappear in a hurry, and perhaps the one that is most […]

Add as preferred source on Google
San Francisco 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk (44) scores a touchdown as tight end George Kittle (85) celebrates with him during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 12, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The San Francisco 49ers defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 34-3. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]

From rest, to homefield advantage to a huge gap in experience and talent, the vast majority of the advantages appear to be stacked in the favor of the San Francisco 49ers for Saturday's divisional round clash with the Green Bay Packers.

But edges can disappear in a hurry, and perhaps the one that is most important for the Niners to maintain in their matchup with the upstart Packers, fresh off their shocking rout of the Dallas Cowboys last week, is the one they have when Green Bay's defense lines up in base personnel.

Operating a 3-4, when the Packers are not in nickel personnel they have two outside linebackers on the field, with Preston Smith and Rashan Gary the players who predominantly operate in those roles.

Their presence essentially gives the Packers a five-man defensive front in base, which can be extremely useful in creating one on ones in the run defense and shutting down opposing ground attacks.

But taking a slot corner off the field and replacing him with an edge defender obviously creates a coverage weakness, one that the 49ers are excellently placed to exploit.

Excelling where Dallas failed

Dallas never came close to taking advantage of the Packers' base defense in the passing game. The Cowboys failed to get the run game going and a play-action attack that could have tempered the aggressiveness of Green Bay in defending the ground game from base was non-existent. With the Cowboys falling 27-0 behind in the second quarter, Dallas' run game was a non-factor from that point on, meaning the Packers were able to stay in nickel and protect a massive lead with little difficultly.

The 49ers, though, are well-equipped to keep the Packers in base looks more often and make them pay for deploying them.

Attacking base personnel is bread and butter for the 49ers, with their aptitude in doing so owing to the versatility of skill position players that allows them to stay in heavy personnel groupings and still present a substantial threat on the ground and through the air.

The 49ers lined up in 21 personnel on 47 percent of their plays in the regular season and, while 11 personnel was most efficient for San Francisco, the Niners still ranked in explosive play rate from 21 and sixth in Expected Points Added per rush, per Arjun Menon.

San Francisco spent just 14 percent of its plays in 12 personnel but was first in EPA per pass and second in explosive play rate from that two-tight end grouping.

It's not difficult to pinpoint reasons for the 49ers' success out of those formations. In Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, they have the two most versatile skill position players in the NFL, whose ability to excel as runners and receivers out of the backfield and as pass-catchers in the formation presents huge mismatch challenges for defenses.

Staying in neutral

With the 49ers able to line them up in the same personnel group as first-team All-Pro tight end George Kittle, second-team All-Pro receiver Brandon Aiyuk and first-team All-Pro fullback Kyle Juszczyk, the best pass-catcher the NFL at his position, San Francisco's passing game threat from 21 is unmatched, and has the potential to put both Smith and Gary, as well as two starting linebackers in Quay Walker and Devondre Campbell who have been mediocre at best in coverage, in extremely difficult positions.

All four of that quartet should be extremely vulnerable to the play-fakes and motions that are a staple of Kyle Shanahan's offense, yet for the Niners to be able to attack in that fashion, it is imperative they do not fall behind and also that they enjoy success on the ground as most will expect them to.

From the jump, Dallas was behind the 8-ball against Green Bay, preventing the Cowboys from capitalizing on what should have been an advantage for them in the wild-card round. 

Nobody is anticipating the 49ers getting in such a hole and, as long as they can stay ahead of the sticks and consistently put themselves at least in neutral pass-run situations and force the Packers to stay in base as often as possible, San Francisco's devastating offense should be excellently placed for a huge performance thanks to a potentially colossal edge in their favor.