What Trey Lance will become at the highest level remains a mystery to the NFL universe and, as he enters the third year of his pro career, he is still an unknown to the 49ers.

Lance, the third overall pick of the 49ers in the 2021 draft, was supposed to be a known quantity by this point.

The path was cleared for him to be the starting quarterback in 2022 after largely redshirting behind Jimmy Garoppolo in his rookie year, only for an ankle injury to end his campaign in Week 2.

The result of that setback is Lance going into his third year having started just four games in his NFL career. 

That number appears unlikely to increase in the immediate future following the emergence of seventh-round pick Brock Purdy late last season.

His lack of experience has left the 49ers unsure what to read into the positive signs they have seen from Lance during his time with the team.

Mike Silver reported as much in a recent post on Threads.

Silver reported one 49ers coach as saying: 

"He looks better in every way [this offseason]… but until we see him in a game, we have absolutely no idea if he'll be good enough."

And there is no guarantee they will ever get the chance to find out if he'll be good enough to make the grade as an NFL starter.

Purdy is on track to recover from elbow surgery in time for Week 1 of what is expected to be his first full season as San Francisco's starting quarterback. 

If Purdy performs at a similar level to the one he displayed during his five-game winning streak to end the regular season, Lance's window to displacing him as the starter will be effectively shut.

NBC Sports Bay Area's Matt Maiocco said as much on his 49ers Talk podcast.

Said Maiocco:

"[Trey Lance] may never get his chance with the 49ers if Brock Purdy gets healthy, stays healthy, and performs well. If [Lance] can’t win the No. 2 job, then the team’s going to have some very difficult decisions to make… even though they may like him, how much longer can they stay with him or does it make more sense to try to get something for him.”

The bare minimum expectation for Lance at this point would be for him to beat out Sam Darnold in the aforementioned battle for the QB2 role.

If he cannot do so, that will be the clearest signal yet that Lance does not have what it takes to thrive as a starter at the highest level. Lance may not be the starter for San Francisco in 2023, but his progress will be one the most fascinating storylines of training camp and preseason for the 49ers.

Brock Purdy continuing to make good progress in recovery

The signs remain positive.

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